Arbitrum’s $79B perp volume fails to lift ARB – What’s holding it back?
What would turn Arbitrum’s trading growth into demand strong enough to absorb newly unlocked tokens?
Arbitrum [ARB] traded around $0.16 after falling more than 3% over the past 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Arbitrum One’s Security Council had frozen hack proceeds, while activity across the chain gained traction. That growth extended to perpetual futures trading and stablecoin transfers, although ARB’s price struggled to follow.
Understanding Arbitrum’s perp trading activity
For instance, Arbitrum One became the second-largest chain for perp trading. The chain has generated over $79.60 billion in perps DEX volume over the past month.
However, Hyperliquid [HYPE] led with $215 billion, almost three times that of Arbitrum, despite Cumberland warning its perp traders.
Even when looking at Open Interest (OI), Arbitrum still came second with slightly over $1 billion for perps.
At the same time, the chain led in stablecoin transfer growth over the past week, reaching $5.10 billion. It was followed by Polygon [POL], Hyperliquid, Robinhood Chain, and XRP Ledger, respectively.
Is ARB’s correction over?
On the charts, ARB was retracing its bullish move from mid-August. The altcoin appeared to bounce around the 0.50–0.618 Fibonacci Retracement zone, which had historically supported continuation.
ARB remained above the Fair Value Gap (FVG) near $0.14. The RSI Divergence indicator remained bearish, while the MACD Histogram’s fading red bars suggested weakening downward momentum.
That left ARB near the boundary between the premium and discount zones. Within a bullish structure, buyers could return around this area or wait for lower prices.
A deeper correction could take ARB toward $0.11, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement level.
The correction may therefore have further to run. If buyers regain control, however, $0.25 could become the next upside target over the coming weeks.
Why is the price recovery becoming harder?
The potential reason why ARB is struggling to recover is the daily token unlocks of over 478K. This creates selling pressure among investors, especially on a daily basis.
Moreover, there is an upcoming major unlock of 93.14 million ARB on November 16, valued at $15 million at the current price. This amount is equivalent to 0.93% of the maximum supply.
In short, ARB bears are slowing down on the charts, but token unlocks are dragging the recovery. If the second test of the FVG fails, the altcoin could rally up for a short period.
Final Summary
- Arbitrum ranked second in monthly Perps DEX Volume, but stronger chain activity had yet to lift ARB’s price.
- ARB’s recovery faced potential unlock-related selling, with $0.14 support and $0.11 downside in focus.
