Are Bitcoin bears not done yet? Analysts warn of a potential $53K BTC flush

There is increasing consensus that Bitcoin’s performance pattern, linked to halving events, may be fully intact. Analyst Benjamin Cowen is the latest to reinforce the four-year BTC cycle, noting that, 

The four-year cycle for Bitcoin is not broken. In fact, BTC’s average drawdown in midterm years is nearly identical to what it is now.

According to him, the asset’s current performance also mirrored past U.S midterm elections. For perspective, the U.S spot BTC ETFs debut in 2024 was widely viewed as a key update that would break the 4-year cycle. 

But key metrics now point towards Cowen’s stance. 

Will Bitcoin soon hit its market cycle bottom?

According to an on-chain analyst, Checkonchain, BTC price action has been flirting with the 200-weekly MA (Moving Average) evaluation model (200WMA Quantile). The past market cycle bottom happened near this key dynamic level. 

The analyst noted, 

The 200WMA Quantile measures where Bitcoin is trading relative to its 200-week moving average. Current readings sit in the bottom ~10% of all historical observations, a region only visited during the deepest stages of prior bear markets.

Similarly, CryptoQuant said BTC could still drop lower to its realized price level of $53.5K, an area that marked a ‘structural floor’ for past bear markets, including the 2022 bottom. 

According to the analytics platform, the current demand for BTC was ‘deeply unfavorable’ for a sustained rebound. Its weekly market report, the firm added, 

Demand conditions remain deeply unfavorable, with total Bitcoin demand (speculative futures and apparent spot) plunging to -652K BTC last week, the largest contraction since January 2022.

In short, the weak demand meant there was a high chance that the BTC price could slip below $60K. As of writing, BTC traded at $63K  and could extend its recovery after retesting its February low last week. 

That said, if past market cycle patterns repeat, BTC could form a true bottom in Q3 or Q4 2026, which would also act as the early phase of the next bull run. 

Final Summary

• Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the 4-year cycle pattern has not been broken despite claims by other analysts. 
• CryptoQuant reinforced the same outlook, warning that the asset could drop to $53K as overall BTC demand drops to a 4-year low.