Arthur Hayes’ AAVE buy sets stage for a rally – But only if…

Key Takeaways

Why did AAVE’s price capture attention?

Arthur Hayes bought 1,630 AAVE ($442K). His whale activity boosted speculation as the token tested the 200-day Moving Average.

What levels could define AAVE’s next move?

Defending $246 support may spark a push toward $384 resistance. Falling under $246 risks triggering liquidation clusters near $270, adding downside pressure.

Aave [AAVE] dropped below the $300 price level but recovered 3.7% in the past day, trading near $279 at press time. The DeFi protocol continued to dominate lending while expanding into real-world asset (RWA) markets.

Even as price action weakened, whales and influential traders accumulated. Can their activity help AAVE reclaim the $300 mark?

Accumulation and DeFi activity surges

The BitMEX Co-Founder made yet another bold conviction buy on AAVE. Arthur Hayes purchased 1,630 AAVE for about $442K, prompting traders to lean toward his prediction.

The purchase followed his exit from Hyperliquid [HYPE] earlier this week, where he cited supply risks from upcoming unlocks.

That shift set up AAVE as his preferred replacement. Traders tracked the wallet flows, suggesting more copy trading could follow Hayes’ conviction buy.

Aave remained one of the largest DeFi protocols, with a total supply of $71.85 billion and total debt above $30 billion in the past year.

On top of that, its RWA arm, Horizon, crossed $150 million in deposits, making it one of the fastest-growing tokenized asset markets.

These fundamentals pointed to long-term growth, but price structure told a different story.

AAVE price approaches 200MA support

On the daily charts, AAVE price action was approaching the 200 MA after breaking below a trendline that began in April. The breakdown followed a rejection of price from its high seen in Q4 2024.

The whale purchase could attract more copy trading, thereby helping to reclaim the lost support.

The structure still remains bullish as it’s above the 200 MA. However, buyers were weak, as the MACD showed bearish momentum was in control of current price action.

For AAVE to revisit $384, bulls needed to defend the 200 MA and reclaim the broken trendline. A breakdown under the MA could push the token into a bearish cycle.

Liquidation clusters tighten

The Liquidation Heatmap indicated that the price was trapped between two zones of high liquidity. And on top of that, liquidity above the price was way more than the liquidity below.

The triggering of these orders could result in a short squeeze, driving the price higher.

By contrast, a slide lower could trigger liquidations beneath $270, deepening the decline if buyers failed to react.