Assessing odds of Chainlink breaking down from its current pattern

Chainlink’s [LINK] inverse head and shoulder breakout failed to maintain a position beyond the three-month trendline resistance (white, dashed). While the price kept traversing below the south-looking EMA ribbons, the sellers kept finding fresher multi-monthly lows until mid-June.     

For nearly a month, the price action has been compressing near the Point of Control (POC, red). A potential break into volatility could induce a trend-altering rally in the coming days. At press time, LINK traded at $6.2.

LINK Daily Chart

After an expected reversal from the $9.2-mark, LINK’s descent transposed into a symmetrical triangle-like setup. The sellers propelled a 44.78% drop from 10 June while bringing LINK down to its two-year low on 13 June.

The past month marked a decent bullish attempt as the alt saw a rise on its troughs. But the trendline resistance has kept the peaks under a solid check and encouraged a rather squeeze near the POC region.

Furthermore, the Supertrend refused to change its bearish stance for nearly a month now while continuing to look south. Any close below the lower trendline of the triangle could inflict a downside break.

This could expose the alt to a nearly 10% downside toward the $5.5-$5.9 range support. An immediate recovery would likely see a slowdown from the EMA ribbons and the $6.8-resistance.

Rationale

The Relative Strength Index has failed to breach the limits of its equilibrium for over a month. The index has taken a sideways track while exhibiting a slight edge for the sellers.

The CMF’s devaluation in the last week has kept it below the zero-mark. A continued spot below this level would favor the sellers in continuing their rally. Nevertheless, the ADX has displayed a substantially weak directional trend for the alt.

Conclusion

Given the rejection from the trendline resistance causing a reversal from the POC, LINK could see a near-term bearish pull. Any fall below the current pattern could propel a further downfall. The targets would remain the same as above.

Any bearish invalidations could see a relatively sluggish phase near the POC zone. Finally, an overall market sentiment analysis becomes vital to complement the technical factors to make a profitable move.