- BTC whales are unwinding long positions in derivatives, signaling waning conviction and risk appetite at current price levels.
- Rising whale inflows to spot exchanges suggest sell-side pressure could drag Bitcoin below key liquidity zones.
Bitcoin [BTC] reclaimed the $100,000 region and climbed to $103,443 over the past 72 hours.
This is the first time since the 3rd of February that the asset has recorded a daily close above this level, according to Binance’s daily chart.
Naturally, such a breakout would suggest growing momentum. However, on-chain and derivatives data tell a different story—one where leverage is drying up, and whale conviction is slipping.
Bitcoin whales’ momentum is weakening
Bullish sentiment among Bitcoin whales in the derivatives market is weakening. Historically, when Bitcoin rallies to the $103,000 level, Open Interest usually hovers above $68 billion.
However, that’s not the case now.
At press time, Bitcoin’s Open Interest stood at $61.3 billion, suggesting traders were opening fewer positions than before.
Source: Alphractal
The Whale Position Sentiment revealed that whales were currently closing their long positions, signaling a market shift.
Since whales control significant liquidity, their exit from long positions suggests declining sentiment and the likelihood of a short-term correction for Bitcoin.
Where is Bitcoin heading?
To determine where Bitcoin might decline to, AMBCrypto analyzed the Liquidation Heatmap for liquidity clusters.
Liquidity clusters are levels on the chart that typically attract price action, indicated by shaded areas.
A liquidity cluster above the current price implies a likely rally to that level; a cluster below the price indicates an approaching drop.
First, there’s a key liquidity pocket around $98,500, with over $103 million in leverage stacked. Should selling intensify, price could wick down into that zone.
The deeper cluster lies between $93,400 and $92,900—housing over $500 million in liquidation leverage. If bearish pressure builds, this zone becomes a magnet.
Source: CoinGlass
These remain the key levels to watch in the market, as price could likely decline to these zones.
What factors are likely to influence a price drop?
Further fueling bearish odds, the Exchange Whale Ratio climbed to 0.4, reflecting increased whale activity on centralized exchanges.
Source: CryptoQuant
Whale Inflows of BTC into centralized exchanges provide further proof.
Three notable moves include a 1,500 BTC transfer (approximately $154 million) into Coinbase, and two 500 BTC transfers—together worth $103 million—into Robinhood.
Such movements from private wallets into centralized exchanges typically indicate intentions to sell.
On top of that, the BTC/ETH chart continues to bleed, suggesting that capital is rotating out of Bitcoin and into other assets, including Ethereum [ETH].
Source: TradingView
This chart has trended downward since the start of the year, and the recent rally confirms that more sellers than buyers are currently trading Bitcoin.
In summary, if whales continue selling and liquidity keeps flowing out of Bitcoin, the asset is likely to drop notably.
