Bitcoin: A re-test of $64k is possible if this catalyst shows up again
Bitcoin, at the time of writing, was oscillating around $50,000. While its price may drop or rise again in the short term, a gradual ascendency above the aforementioned range is a near-confirmed scenario.
BTC breaching $50,000 keeps the asset roughly 30% away from its previous all-time high. However, with trading volumes decreasing and being relatively lower than in April-May, there might be a lack of momentum.
Now, in this article, we will try to analyze a speculative situation. What if one of the catalysts from the previous bull run triggers another rally?
Grayscale Bitcoin – Is it time to make a move?
On 21 February 2021, Grayscale reached peak Bitcoin holdings of 655.47k. Since then, however, its accumulation activity has gone down. At press time, holdings were down to ~649k.
Over the same time, GBTC premiums started to deplete on the charts, touching a low of -21% on 15 May. Now, while premiums have continued to remain negative, this might change over the next few months.
The months between March and August had several GBTC unlocks scheduled, with close to 30,000 BTCs undergoing unlock between 21-23 June. GBTC unlocks are usually suggestive of investors who are taking their profits after completing the initial 6-month lock-up period.
However, as of 22 August, there are no more additional unlocks until after September. Now, this could lead to a domino effect, one which might see BTC go up based on institutional momentum.
Grayscale accumulation 2.0?
It is important to note that Grayscale hasn’t announced any addition to its BTC holdings. Even so, speculations can be drawn that it could be an ideal time to renew demand for its GBTC product. With premiums at 11% at press time, there is likely going to be more of an incline as demand might start to inch back up.
Bitcoin’s price is currently above its immediate $42,000 level. This allows the asset to be above the bearish realm. If Grayscale undergoes another accumulation stint, GBTC shares will eat up demand once more. This will fuel a rise in premiums.
Back in November 2020, aggressive interest from the institutional side led to retail caving in, leading to the enormous rally. Although the market structure is very different right now, Grayscale’s renewed interest might just be what Bitcoin needs to touch $64,000.