Bitcoin proponent Mike Novogratz, spoke at the MENA Summit 2019, where he discussed the volatility of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets and its transition into a store of value and a competitor for gold.
The world had witnessed a “once in a generational bubble in cryptocurrency” which was oozing with volatility, he said. He further added that volatility would eventually come back, some of it owing to U.S government politics.
Mike Novogratz also said that politics would create a period of volatility, affecting a rally where people would “buy the dip market and not stay long market.” Speaking about the drawbacks of the traditional markets, Novogratz stated,
“One of the real reasons everybody should have one percent of their portfolio in Bitcoin are these reasons. Bitcoin is becoming a digital gold and really the only crypto that has value just because it does. It is the hedge against these Minsky Moments…”
“If we start having a real financial crisis, the breakdown in trust in government securities, then it’s going to skyrocket ’cause it really is hard money… it’s going to replace gold.”
Novogratz also said that Bitcoin’s store of value was one of the reasons why financial institutions were getting into the crypto-space.
Fidelity and NYSE are some of these institutions that have shown a liking towards Bitcoin. To this, Novogratz said that these institutions would become, “the architecture for the rich guy and rich institutions to safely store money in Bitcoin” in the upcoming future. He said that these two institutions would start by June and pension funds would also start accumulating Bitcoin in small amounts.
@JT_XRP, a Twitter user commented,
“Mike @novogratz is the biggest bag holder of $XRP; he promotes Bitcoin because he needs to unload his bags on naive new investors. After all, he has invested in the company @Ripple”
@DutchXRP, another Twitter user commented,
“I think he is saying: Regulation is US is coming by June. From that moment, these pension company’s can hold thes assets not their balance sheets.”
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Bitcoin’s on-chain/off-chain valuation indicators the key point of focus as coin heads to $13,000
With the rise in Bitcoin’s price, the rest of the cryptocurrency market has followed suit by displaying a green trend across the board. In a recent series of tweets by popular cryptocurrency analyst Adam Tache, users were informed about the top Bitcoin on-chain and off-chain valuation indicators, derived from on-chain valuation models.
The analysis touched on the Mayer Multiple created by dividing the price by the all-important – 200 day moving average. The current average Mayer Multiple stands at a figure of 1.39, which may climb higher. Looking at previous figures, the normal Mayer Multiple figures stated that if the value shoots up to 2.4, then Bitcoin eventually retraces back to a comfortable 1.5. The Mayer Multiple is usually considered as the original indicator used to clock the valuation of Bitcoin.
Another major indicator discussed in the thread was the NVT Ratio invented by Willy Woo, Partner at Adaptive Fund. The indicator is used to calculate Bitcoin’s prominence or value in the cryptocurrency space by evaluating the amount transacted on the blockchain as a “proxy for investment flow and bear and bull market cycles.”
At the moment, the NVT ratio for Bitcoin is in an abnormal region compared to the start of previous bullish patterns. The NVT ratio was above the “bear market” separator, which meant that the cryptocurrency was overbought. When Bitcoin is overbought, it usually means that the buying pressure is much higher than the selling pressure. Adam Tache opined,
“NVT signaling overbought is likely due to a number of factors — namely the proliferation of exchange-based, purely off-chain txs driving short-term price action.”
The analysis also pointed out the liveliness of the Bitcoin indicator created by Tamas Blummer. The indicator showed the inverse count of lost or ‘HODLed’ Bitcoin, while stating that when the ratio increases, long-terms holders of the cryptocurrency decrease their positions. The indicator conveyed accumulation of Bitcoin when the ratio decreased.
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