Bitcoin: Despite $11B ETF inflows, BTC stalls below $110K – Reasons?

• Selling pressure from long-term holders and whales has kept BTC muted above $100K. 
• Still, VC Chamath Palihapitiya boldly projected BTC could hit $500K by October.  

Is Bitcoin [BTC] price being suppressed?

This has been the question across Crypto Twitter as members struggle to grasp how the price has remained range-bound at $100K-$110K despite massive ETF inflows and treasury frenzy. 

In Q2 alone, ETF inflows surged to nearly $11 billion while Metaplanet, Strategy, Twenty One Capital, and other treasury firms announced millions and billions worth of BTC buys.  

In fact, last week alone, ETFs bought 20.7K BTC or about 12.6% of the annual new Bitcoin (mined) supply.

But what do other on-chain data say about the divergence between this high demand and price? 

Long-term holders are still offloading

Explaining the disconnect, Charles Edwards, founder of macro hedge fund Capriole Investment, linked the pressure to long-term holders (LTH).

He stated, 

“It’s because Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on Wall St since the ETF launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.”

Per the attached chart, 6-month holders (blue line) have absorbed (spiked) in the past two months, while LTH dumped (+2 years holders, red line). 

However, others claimed that some massive buys are being carried out via OTC (Over the Counter) desks.

As a result, they rarely reflect on traditional order books or CEXs (centralized exchanges). This reduces the potential impact of such moves on the price, noted TXMC Trades. 

“An increasing amount of older coins are being reactivated, but they are not making their way into the order books. They are being transacted OTC to supply large buyers like the ETFs, and these actions do not affect the price in the same way.” 

Even so, supply on OTC desks and reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped 20-30% since 2024. This could set BTC up for a squeeze higher. 

However, the offloading from LTH appeared plausible. Earlier in June, analyst Willy Woo stated that those with 10K-100K BTC and who bought BTC at $0-$800 have been dumping since 2017. 

“The big whales >10k BTC have been selling since 2017. ‘They’re stupid!’ Most of those coins were bought between $0-$700 and held 8-16 years.”

Additionally, the number of whales with over 1K BTC reduced from late May, from 2,114 to 2,008, before recovering in the last week of June. This change coincided with the $111K peak in May, underscoring the whale pressure. 

In fact, retail interest also dropped 10% during this period, further capping the BTC breakout prospect. Still, VC Chamath Palihapitiya projected BTC could hit $500K by October, citing a historical post-halving rally pattern.