Bitcoin Fed outlook – Will lower rates take BTC to $200K by December 2025?
Experts expect Bitcoin to tap $200K by year-end, citing potential Fed rate cuts in Q3 and U.S.-China trade talks.
- Bitcoin hit $99K post-Fed rate decision, extending its recovery to 32% from April lows.
- A market expert projected BTC could rally to $200K if it reclaims $100K.
On the 8th of May, during the early Asian trading session, Bitcoin [BTC] jumped to $99K for the first time since February. It extended its recovery from April lows to 32%.
The rally happened just hours after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.
Backing its decision, the Fed said the labor market was solid, but inflation was still sticky.
“The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.”
What’s next if BTC reclaims $100K?
Most experts now expect more Fed rate cuts in Q3 2025, a move that could fuel risk-on sentiment and BTC’s extended run. Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, echoed this outlook.
In an email, Mena told AMBcrypto,
“A clean break above $100,000 could trigger a retest of the all-time high at $108,500 – and if adoption accelerates on both domestic and global fronts, Bitcoin could push beyond $200,000 by year-end.”
Mena added that U.S.-China trade talks and growing adoption of BTC by nation-states could further fuel the asset’s value.
In fact, Mena also noted growing investors’ preference for BTC over gold after BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) surpassed the most popular gold ETF in year-to-date (YTD) flows.
Simply put, BTC could rally harder in low-rate environments.
That said, the U.S. investors have boosted the recent recovery, as shown by the Coinbase Premium Index being fairly positive for the past two weeks.
In the past week alone, U.S. spot BTC ETFs attracted $2 billion in inflows, tipping YTD inflows to cross $5B.
On the three-month liquidation heatmaps, BTC tapped key upside liquidity pockets at $98K and $100K, which were next in line. Further ahead, the $106K was another liquidity zone and a potential price magnet.
On the lower side, liquidity zones were at $93K and $83K and could act as likely support levels in case of a pullback.
Overall, BTC could benefit from more positive macro updates, especially the U.S.-China trade talks in the short term.
However, according to experts like Matt Mena, the mid-term also appeared positive for the asset, especially if Fed rate cuts happen in Q3 2025.
