Bitcoin jumps as U.S.-China meeting sparks market optimism – What’s next?

• BTC retested $97K briefly ahead of US-China talks in Switzerland. 
• Polymarket odds of a trade deal were below 30% at the time of writing. 

Bitcoin [BTC] briefly retested $97K on Tuesday following an update on planned U.S.-China talks in Switzerland for a potential trade deal. 

The meeting was confirmed via a statement from the U.S. Treasury Department, which stated, 

“While in Switzerland, Secretary Bessent will also meet with the lead representative on economic matters from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).” 

Will macro shift fuel BTC rally to $100K?

President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports in April to 145%. In retaliation, China imposed 125% tariffs on U.S. imports. 

The ongoing uncertainty destabilized markets, including Bitcoin and crypto. In fact, BTC slipped 15% from $88K to $74.5K.

However, the asset stabilized in late April after Trump showed that a potential tariff deal with China was possible. 

The May meeting would mark the first attempt at resolving the tariff stalemate, a key macro overhang that has capped BTC’s extended recovery. 

Notably, the Chinese embassy in the U.S. confirmed the meeting and announced, 

“As China’s lead on China-U.S. economic and trade affairs, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12.”

Source: Capriole Investment

The slight macro relief from late April has already pushed BTC from $74K to $96K, reiterated by the positive expansion on the Bitcoin Macro Index.

Any further positive macro updates would push BTC higher. 

However, prediction site Polymarket bettors were not overly optimistic about the outcome of the scheduled talks this month. 

According to the site, there was less than a 30% chance of a U.S.-China trade deal before June.

Source: Polymarket 

On the Options market, traders were heavily buying calls (bullish bets) as the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) was positive for end-May and June expiries. 

On Deribit, traders priced in a 16% chance of BTC rallying to $110K in May, while the odds for hitting that target increased to 28% in June. 

Source: Deribit 

However, any negative updates from the U.S.-China trade talks would impact BTC and are worth tracking.