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Bitcoin: History repeats itself? Inklings of 2013-2017 bull cycle emerge

2min Read

Bitcoin is repeating a pattern that was previously seen from 2013 to 2017. Does this mean that another bull run is on the way?

Bitcoin: History repeats itself? Inklings of 2013-2017 bull cycle emerge

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  • Bitcoin’s price action over the last two years correlated with the start of the 2013-2017 bullish cycle.
  • Whales and address growth support long-term bullish expectations.

Have you recently thought about where Bitcoin [BTC] could be in the next two to five years? Well, longer time frames are difficult to estimate because of the diverse list of factors that make it difficult to accurately predict the outcome. But what if Bitcoin’s past could offer insights as to what to expect in the future?

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A recent analysis suggests that Bitcoin is repeating a pattern that was previously seen during the 2013 to 2017 bullish cycle. It also looks into BTC’s performance from July 2021 to the present.

Based on the above analysis, we see that Bitcoin’s performance in the last two years resembled its performance in the first two years of the 2013-2017 cycle. It maintained this correlation in the last seven months.

If Bitcoin’s current cycle maintains the same correlation, then we can expect Bitcoin to enter an exponential growth phase within the next two years.

Interestingly, the above observation aligns with the timeline of the next Bitcoin halving, which is expected to act as yet another bullish catalyst. We previously looked into how ongoing debt concerns in the U.S. could contribute to the next major wave of BTC adoption.

Whale activity is recovering in line with the prediction

The same price analysis reveals that whale participation is recovering in line with bullish expectations. If we look at whale activity over the last two years, we see overall outflows from August 2021, up until April 2023. However, the number of whales has been growing since April.

Bitcoin total addresses and number of whales

Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin’s total addresses have been growing steadily over the last two years. This positive growth confirmed that the retail segment has also been embracing Bitcoin. Meanwhile, BTC’s HODLed or Lost Coins metric has been steadily rising as well.

Bitcoin long term holder supply and hodled or lost coins

Source: Glassnode

Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24

Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has also maintained an overall upward trajectory over the last two years. These observations further support the possibility that Bitcoin might deliver a bullish outcome over the next two years.

This long-term outcome may play out as the next bullish cycle. However, these are just speculative predictions based on recent observations. They therefore do not guarantee the absence of bearish short-term outcomes.


Michael is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has 5 years of experience in finance and forex and more than two years as a writer in the crypto and blockchain segments. Michael's writing at AMBCrypto is primarily focused on cryptocurrency market news and technical analysis. His interests include motorcycles and exotic cars.
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