Bitcoin post-halving predictions: ‘Fastest horse’ or 90% fall?

• Pre-halving events and ETFs stir Bitcoin price speculation.
• Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente analyze Bitcoin’s price drivers and future prospects

Well, well! We are just a hop, skip, and a jump away from Bitcoin’s [BTC] 2024 halving. But, the unusual nature of the pre-halving and BTC’s price action brings us to a question — Will the fourth halving event take on a different course? 

Execs analysis of Bitcoin 

In a recent stream on the “Unchained” podcast, Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research shed light on the reason behind the atypical moves of the leading cryptocurrency. 

Highlighting the significant impact of Bitcoin ETFs, resulting in record-breaking sales and inflows of fiat currency into the crypto ecosystem, driving up prices. Hayes noted, 

“Obviously every cycle is different…the main narrative of this cycle is sort of the addition of a Bitcoin derivative that institutional investors globally can invest in and so we’re really tied to those flows in terms of how the price action is going to eventuate.” 

This outlines the complexity of factors influencing Bitcoin’s price, including the Bitcoin halving, macro liquidity cycles, behavioral dynamics, and the impact of passive flows from the approval of spot ETFs. 

Additionally, shedding light on the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on decentralization and price volatility, Clemente said, 

“I think for me in the foreseeable future the decentralization stuff isn’t like a huge concern. I do think the volatility will just naturally come down every time as Bitcoin becomes larger, becomes more liquid, more volume, etc.” 

What’s next for the king coin? 

Needless to say, the speakers also underscored the underlying economic tensions and factors influencing institutional investors to allocate funds to Bitcoin.

They also elaborated on the narrative of the destruction of the sovereign bond market, the role of central banks in money printing, and the demographic shift towards digital native investors. 

Despite these setbacks, Clemente believes that Bitcoin will trade steadily upwards, resembling the behavior of traditional indices. He said, 

“I suspect that Bitcoin will probably be the fastest horse over the coming years and we’re gonna hedge against that.”  

On the contrary, Hayes outlined an extended crypto market cycle with higher potential gains, and expected significant drawdown of BTC by 85% to 90%.

So, will the upcoming halving, mixed with market uncertainty and the adherence to traditional cycles, continue to keep us on edge?