Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be taken as investment advice
There were some factors that pointed to Bitcoin dropping back to $45,000, at press time. In fact, in the last two weeks alone, Bitcoin has corrected by 25% after climbing from $43,200 to $58,200. The region in the vicinity of $52,000 has acted as a zone of supply for BTC. In the long-term, another dip to $45,000 or lower should be regarded as a buying opportunity.
Bitcoin 12-hour chart
Source: BTC/USD on TradingView
For most of the last 36 hours, the $48,850-$48,950 area has acted as support for BTC. The most important levels over the next few days will be $44,000, $49,000, and $52,000, with each of these levels expected to act as support and resistance.
The second rejection at the $52,000-area of supply was not something the bulls wanted, but they were able to keep the price above the $48k-mark for the most part over the last few days, a sign of bullish strength.
However, this alone isn’t enough. Ergo, a deeper correction cannot yet be ruled out. In fact, losing the $49k-area would be the first step back to $44,000.
Reasoning
Here, the trade volume can be taken into account – The ‘recovery’ from $45,120 to $52,000 saw average or below-average volume. Even though funding rates were back to normal on the Futures market for BTC, the market conviction to drive prices beyond the psychological $50,000 was not present.
As the OBV highlighted, the sellers have dominated the market since $58k and the bulls’ defense of the $43,000-level might be a feat that needs to be replicated once more.
The Stochastic RSI was in overbought territory and falling, yet the RSI stood at 51. Some interim support can be expected to be found at $47k should we see a drop, with the strength of the bears at that price level worth noting too.
Conclusion
The bullish strength needed to drive BTC back beyond $52,000 was not yet present. A correction back towards $47k and $44k cannot yet be ruled out. However, these would only be a minor dip in the long-term and not a reversal for BTC.
