On this day last year, Bitcoin was changing hands at a grand total of around $38,400. At the time of writing, however, the king coin was trading at $29,869.80 after rising by 2.09% in the past day and increasing by 0.24% in the last week. Trying to divine Bitcoin’s next movements can feel like trying to stare through walls, but one analyst believes that bulls have a reason to look forward to the future.
B is for bull, not bear?
The pseudonymous creator of the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model, PlanB, has spent the last few days tweeting his theories about where Bitcoin’s price could go next. The analyst noted that an older S2F model seemed to fit the asset’s current trajectory rather than the update which suggested Bitcoin reaching $100,000 soon.
PlanB claimed that $100k was “too high” an estimate, but consoled bulls by suggesting that the model pointed to Bitcoin reaching a price of $500k after the halving in two years.
Original 2019 $55K S2F model seems to fit better than later $100K update. Interestingly a refit based on 18m average S2F ratio and 3 yrs new data confirms the original model. The bad news: $100K was probably too high. The good news: model still points to $500K after 2024 halving. pic.twitter.com/O9kCC2In5j
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) May 21, 2022
But in the meantime, how should investors make sense of what’s going on? Data from Arcane Research observed that Bitcoin’s price has been sliding downwards for eight consecutive weeks – marking a new milestone in its turbulent history. However, after months of both dizzying rallies and shocking drops, Arcane Research’s report highlighted that the king coin was settling into stability at last. The report stated,
“During the past seven days, bitcoin has been rangebound between $29,000 and $30,500, leading the 7-day volatility to decrease to more normal levels for the year after almost hitting yearly highs last week.”
Adding to that, a look at the Relative Volatility Index [RVI] revealed a value above 50, meaning that future volatility could take the coin’s price upwards. However, with an ongoing war and Terra FUD, don’t expect models to work as they should.
Fear is in the mind – and the portfolio
A rally is easier said than done. The market is deep in a fearful haze, with even the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index touching new single-digit lows.
According to Arcane Research’s information, Bitcoin could drop as low as $25,000 if it falls under the $29k support level. On the other hand, if the coin pulls itself up, it will have to shatter the $30,500 resistance and then the $35,000 resistance.