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Bitcoin: When can we expect a potential Golden Cross

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Bitcoin will have a huge impact on the market if it successfully achieves what its indicators seemed to be pointing towards. With BTC trading close to $40,000 at the moment, analysts have become skeptical of what’s to come next. Popular analyst Michael van de Poppe analyzed the cryptocurrency’s market recently, before going out to mark the important levels which might dictate BTC’s price movement going forward.

Bitcoin Golden Cross

Now, this has been analyzed and discussed in the past as well. In fact, a previous analysis had placed the expected dates for the Golden Cross (GC) close to the end of July and the beginning of August – a projection that now seems to be coming true.

When the 50 MA (Moving Average) crosses the 200 MA, a Death Cross (DC) occurs – Usually, an indication of a price fall/heavy consolidation. A GC is seen when the opposite happens. While the likelihood of a GC was bleak for most of the month, thanks to a week-long rally, this GC might be coming true. 

Bitcoin Death Cross of June 19 | Source: Michael van de Poppe

Post the 19 June DC, the 50 MA kept falling. With the indicator now picking up, however, the GC is closer than before. This also opens up different price ranges for Bitcoin, each of which could support or deflect a bull run.

Important zones to watch out for

First and foremost is the $41,000 level. While many maximalists and investors expect BTC to break $41k over the next few days, the analyst disagreed.

“We are still acting inside resistance… we are going to get some consolidation before we are getting any (bullish) continuation”

This sounds plausible, especially since any rally might result in a slight correction and with Bitcoin, this correction could come at either of these 2 levels –

  1. A drop towards $34.5k – $36k – Higher lows formed in this range will be just the support needed for Bitcoin to rally ahead moderately
  2. Higher low at $32.6k – As the critical support for the $40k rally, a higher low can serve as good support for another rally

According to Van de Poppe,

“If these 2 zones [ 32.6k/34.5k – 36k ] hold that would guarantee or at least push the price up for Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin’s important holding zones | Source: Michael van de Poppe

What’s more, the analyst also claimed that any breakdown from these levels could result in Bitcoin falling to $26k. This would validate the China pump scenario.

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, however, seemed to differ from this prediction.

Bitcoin is not controlled by the Chinese

A simple observation of the Price DAA Divergence shows how BTC has managed to finally break its 2-month long downtrend. This breakout is an indication of increased retail participation, following up on the hike in miner participation.

According to the Miner Net Position Change, miners are buying again as BTC finally exited “The Great Migration” phase. These findings also underline the positive sentiment of the market, something that could protect BTC against any major breakdown.

Bitcoin Price DAA Divergence breaks the downtrend | Source: Glassnode – AMBCrypto

Bitcoin Miner Net Position Change | Source: Bitcoin Archive


Aaryamann is a freelance crypto journalist working with AMBCrypto. He is currently investing his time in the crypto-space. He has a keen interest in DeFi, the ever-expanding possibilities of blockchain technology, as well as the political impact they would have.
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