Bitcoin – Why BTC is not in a price bubble, despite recent volatility
Market indicators point to controlled growth, with long-term holders staying firm.
Key takeaways
Bitcoin is rising steadily without signs of a speculative bubble, staying above its long-term trend. Most selling is coming from short-term holders. Market indicators show a cautious but stable outlook.
Bitcoin [BTC] is growing steadily, without the wild price spikes we’ve seen in past bull runs. It’s staying above its long-term growth trend, but not in a bubble.
Most of the recent selling has come from short-term traders, not long-time holders, which means newer investors are driving the ups and downs.
Meanwhile, the broader market seems to be settling into a more mature phase.
BTC grows in line with Power Law theory, avoids bubble territory
A recent report by Arab Chain on CryptoQuant highlighted how Bitcoin is closely tracking its long-term growth pattern based on the Power Law theory.
This model suggests that Bitcoin’s price increases over time in a logarithmic, predictable way – forming a steady upward curve rather than spiking irrationally.
The Power Law divergence indicator measures how far the current price is from this expected trajectory.
When comparing past Bitcoin cycles to the current one, it’s evident that the price has not yet entered bubble territory and may still have room to grow.
According to the latest reading, Bitcoin is positioned above its long-term trendline but still well below the overheated “top watch” zone(red).
This shows disciplined, organic growth and leaves room for further upside.
STHs are driving market volatility
On-chain data from Glassnode showed that 85.5% of Bitcoin’s spent volume over the last 24 hours came from STHs, amounting to $18.24 billion.
In contrast, LTHs only accounted for $3.10 billion, or 14.5% of total spent volume.
This imbalance indicates that the current wave of selling is being led by recent entrants, not long-standing believers. So long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains intact.
Stable, but indicators show mixed signals
At press time, Bitcoin hovered around $113,545 after a brief pullback from recent highs near $118K.
The daily RSI dropped to 42.91, showing weakening bullish momentum but not yet entering oversold territory. The OBV also trended downward, reflecting a reduction in buying pressure over the past week.
While the price managed a slight uptick during the latest daily session, market momentum remains cautious.
The overall pattern suggests that Bitcoin was cooling off from its recent rally, but not breaking down; in line with the narrative of a disciplined, maturing market.
