Bitcoin’s fate hinges on 10-month resistance – Break it, and…

Bitcoin [BTC] continued to struggle as restricted capital inflows kept it near half its October 2025 all-time high.

Chart analysis from Alphractal’s Joao Wedson suggested Bitcoin could remain subdued until it cleared a key resistance structure.

Wedson mapped the structure from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. The chart tracked a descending path where Bitcoin tested the upper resistance boundary three times across more than ten months.

However, BTC failed to produce a decisive breakout rally.

The formation usually turned bullish after a breakout gained sustained momentum. Bitcoin had yet to deliver such a move. A strong breakout could send Bitcoin back toward the channel’s origin near its October peak.

Can Bitcoin break key resistance?

Bitcoin tested the resistance boundary again, and the odds of clearing it appeared to improve. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a bullish crossover. Its blue line moved above the orange signal line.

The crossover formed between Thursday and Friday. Such signals often preceded stronger momentum and a move into positive territory.

At the same time, the Accumulation/Distribution Line showed buyers dominating the market. Buying Volume recently reached its highest level since 26th May.

These signals pointed to a higher probability of Bitcoin clearing resistance and holding a sustained move higher.

Is Bitcoin’s bottom near?

Several on-chain indicators also flagged a higher chance that Bitcoin’s bottom was near.

AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that Bitcoin recently exited the Supply in Profit band’s “bottom discovery” zone.

Bitcoin historically traded in that zone before major rallies. The short-term holder (STH) realized-profit signal added to the case for a potential Bitcoin surge. No outcome was guaranteed. Still, confidence in a market rebound appeared to build.

CoinMarketCap’s 24-hour sentiment reading stood at +2.06. That offered little confirmation as sentiment remained broadly flat.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin tested a resistance structure that capped BTC rallies for more than ten months.
• BTC bottom signals strengthened, though flat market sentiment offered limited confirmation of a sustained recovery.