Could PEPE repeat its April 2024 rally? THESE metrics say yes

The memecoin market continues to show why tokens without real utility are behaving differently from past rallies, where FUD often drove short-term capital inflows. Notably, the data justifies this growing divergence.

According to CoinMarketCap, the memecoin sector has already lost nearly $8 billion in 2026, dropping to multi-year lows. In fact, some coins are down more than 60%, leaving only a handful holding relatively stable.

In this context, Pepe’s [PEPE] 47% drop over the same period shows that even OGs aren’t immune. And yet, social activity around PEPE remains strong. Recent tweets hit 888, and positive sentiment jumped to 80.95%.

According to AMBCrypto, the timing here matters. 

On the chart, PEPE has retraced back to its early April 2024 support around $0.0000035. During that cycle, it triggered the memecoin’s massive near 152% rally, highlighting how quickly momentum can shift for memecoins.

Building on that, the memecoin’s Open Interest (OI) is moving north, adding nearly $30 million in fresh positions this week. That’s a 15% jump to $221 million, signaling renewed trader positioning for the next potential move.

Taken together, the case for a potential bottom is getting stronger. The question now: With PEPE down 40% this month, could this resilience flip into a classic bear trap, catching shorts off guard if momentum holds?

PEPE’s on-chain metrics hint at potential April-style breakout

On-chain metrics suggest a PEPE short squeeze could be coming.

To begin with, Arkham Intelligence recently flagged a clear divergence between spot and perpetual positions. PEPE’s Funding Rate has flipped negative, showing heavy shorting and traders betting on further downside.

Supporting this divergence, Santiment data shows the top 100 PEPE wallets have accumulated 23.02 trillion PEPE coins since the October crash. The effect is already visible, with PEPE/BTC up 4.3% intraday.

Taken together, this setup looks like a textbook bear trap. 

Rising Open Interest, strong rotational flows, and heavy accumulation, all around historically key support, don’t happen by accident. With a negative funding rate in play, bulls are clearly putting shorts at risk.

If this trend holds in the coming days, PEPE could break through its near-term resistance at $0.0000065, potentially repeating its April-style surge. For investors, these on-chain metrics are becoming key signals to watch.

Final Thoughts

• Rising Open Interest, heavy whale accumulation, and strong social activity signal growing bullish momentum.
• Negative funding rates and on-chain divergences put shorts at risk, with the memecoin eyeing a breakout toward $0.0000065.