Crypto bounces as the macro market remains uncertain: Will it sustain?

The crypto market saw a 10.4% bounce in total market capitalization since the swift price drop in the early hours of Monday. Bitcoin [BTC] led the charge, gaining 10.55%. Some altcoins have posted greater returns.

The U.S. government reopened on the 13th of November, after a 43-day pause. This threw a monkey wrench into the machinery, as the market was missing some key information. Some reports were being released.

For example, on Wednesday, payroll processor ADP said that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November. In contrast, economists expected an increase of 40,000 jobs.

On the bright side, the Federal Reserve officially ended its quantitative tightening (QT). The stock market also had a positive performance on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3% for the day.

The Bank of America and BlackRock asserted that the AI boom was driven by real corporate investment, and not irrational exuberance that drove the dot-com bubble.

The current environment was described as more of an “air pocket” than a bubble by Bank of America’s head of equity and research.

These developments showed that the already volatile crypto-sphere was being tugged at in different directions by the indecisive macro conditions as well.

Crypto bounce not supported by strong capital flows

The total crypto market cap fell below $3.56 trillion, a key support level, in September. It continued to trend downward, but something interesting happened over the past two weeks.

The trendline support (yellow) from November 2023 was breached in November. The retest of the same level as resistance, surprisingly, did not reject the total market cap.

It served as support once again in recent days. Perhaps the crypto bounce could continue in the coming weeks.

The Open Interest behind Bitcoin has slowly grown over the past three days, but it was still shallow compared to the October highs.

A lack of speculative interest showed that market confidence was still low, and bullish bets were not as big as earlier.

A sustained growth in spot demand and OI is necessary to drive the next rally. Until then, investors and traders can treat the bounce as a bounce and not expect a full recovery.

Final Thoughts

• The crypto bounce amid an uncertain wider market sentiment meant investors should remain cautiously optimistic.
• Sustained spot and speculative volume will indicate capital flow is back in crypto. The dovish Fed stance could make this a reality in the coming months.