Decoding factors detrimental to Filecoin’s [FIL] short-term recovery

Filecoin (FIL) has lost most of its value in the last year since its April 2021 highs. In the last month, bulls finally managed to flip the six-month trendline resistance (white, dashed) to immediate support. But the sellers didn’t falter to reignite their force after taking a u-turn from the $28-ceiling.

An eventual close above the 23.6% resistance would position FIL for a test of the $16-$18 zone before a trend-altering move by the alt. At press time, FIL traded at $14.77.

FIL Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, FIL/USDT

Over the past 13 months, FIL lost more than 95% of its value and witnessed a fairly swift drawdown towards the $14 baseline. In the meanwhile, the alt saw multiple descending triangles and a down-channel while bears displayed their one-sided dominance.

The recent drop from the $28-mark pulled FIL below the 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan) while the sellers continued to boost their pressure. Not surprisingly, the Supertrend remained in the red zone during this plummet. What’s more?, with this fall, FIL fell towards its all-time low on 30 April at the $11-mark. The sellers took charge of the peaks and troughs while the buyers tried to hold their grounds at $14.

A likely short-term recovery from its record lows seemed rather likely in the coming times. A close above the 23.6% level would give FIL a thrust to test the upper trendline of the down-channel (white). But with the south-looking tendencies of the 20 EMA, it could continue to exhibit recovery barriers in the coming days.

Rationale

Source: TradingView, FIL/USDT

FIL’s RSI has been traversing sideways while slamming itself into the 34-ceiling. An eventual break above this mark could pave a path to a stronger revival on the price chart.

Also, the Aroon up (yellow) kept gliding near the zero-mark for the last few days. A likely lift-off from this bottom could assist FIL in overturning the 23.6% resistance. But after a recent bearish divergence of the CMF and price action, the money volumes into the crypto’s ecosystem have taken a plunge. Should the immediate 0.09 support stand stiff, the alt could aim for a sustained recovery. 

Conclusion

In view of the strength of the $14-support, FIL could aim to find a break above the 23.6% level in the days to come. In which case, the 20/50 EMA would continue to pose resistance hurdles for the alt. On the flip side, an inability to amplify trading volumes on the part of buyers could be detrimental to FIL’s short-term recovery.  

Besides, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s movement and the broader sentiment would be important to complement the aforementioned analysis.