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Dogecoin’s price forecast – How will Bitcoin’s halving impact this altcoin?

2min Read

Dogecoin enjoys a high correlation with Bitcoin. With the halving almost here, what does this mean?

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  • Despite a certain transaction, DOGE’s price might fall in the short term
  • Decreasing velocity suggested that the coin might climb towards $0.25 in a few months

According to blockchain tracker Whale Alert, a market participant sent 100 million Dogecoin [DOGE] from Robinhood to an unidentified wallet. At the time of the transfer, the coins were worth $15.25 million, sparking speculation that the price could hike soon.

Robinhood is a trading platform where users can exchange their cryptocurrencies for fiat. In most cases, inflows into the platform come with a motive to sell. However, since the coins went out to a non-exchange wallet, it is possible that the intention is to hold for some time. When something like this happens, the cryptocurrency’s price jumps or consolidates on the charts.

A little decline before the hike?

For Dogecoin, AMBCrypto cannot yet confirm what the end result could be. However, it seemed that the decision may be to prepare for the post-Bitcoin [BTC] halving price performance.

Historically, prices of memecoins like Dogecoin have surged to astronomical values months after the halving. At press time, DOGE was clinging to $0.15, representing a 4.64% hike within just 24 hours.

However, on-chain data from Santiment showed that the uptick might not last. This, because of the trend displayed by the one-day circulation. At the time of writing, Dogecoin’s circulation had risen to 1.07 billion. The hike implied that more coins are being used, with fewer ones taken off the market.

If the metric continues to climb, then DOGE’s value might fall. On the contrary, the coin’s velocity flashed a different signal, with the same having a value of 1.49.

Dogecoin's increasing circulation, indicating a possible decline

Source: Santiment

Bitcoin pours more into DOGE

A high velocity for a cryptocurrency indicates solid economic activity. In this instance, holders are spending a lot of their coins. However, a decrease, like in DOGE’s situation, suggests a reluctance to spend.

In the short-term, a rising circulation might draw DOGE below $0.15. However, if the velocity remains low in the coming months, DOGE’s price could rally and targets between $0.20 and $0.25 could be plausible.

AMBCrypto also assessed Dogecoin’s correlation with Bitcoin. This was done to check if DOGE’s price might follow BTC’s direction over the next few weeks.

According to data from Macroaxis, the 90-day correlation coefficient between both cryptocurrencies is 0.94. This metric ranges from -1 to +1. A value close to -1 shows almost no correlation while the other shows strong similar movement.

Dogecoin shows a strong correlation with Bitcoin

Source: Macroaxis

Despite the correlation, DOGE would have generated 1.66 times more than BTC if you invested the same amount in the last three months.

Realistic or not, here’s DOGE’s market cap in BTC terms

Moving on, this might not change. As such, if Bitcoin’s price tumbles, Dogecoin could plunge harder. On the other hand, a significant increase in Bitcoin’s value could stir a mind-blogging rally for DOGE like the one last seen in March.


Victor Olanrewaju is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. Settled in Lagos, his fascination with blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market arose out of his love of freedom and everything free. As a Nigerian, Victor understands the impact unfounded financial restrictions have on a population. He sees Bitcoin and cryptos as a way to circumvent these obstacles, as a tool for value creation despite all the setbacks. A graduate in Physics, Victor previously worked as a Senior Marketer at Melange Technologies. Before that, he dealt with crypto-marketers on a regular basis in his capacity as Copywriter at Ventrix Media. At AMBCrypto, Victor’s focus is on assessing the real effectiveness of both on-chain and off-chain developments on a project and its community sentiment.
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