ETH ETF inflows rise, but Futures data warns traders aren’t buying the rally!

• ETH ETF inflows topped $1 billion in June, but the Futures market lacked conviction
• ETH could offer great buying opportunities if the SOPR historical signal repeats itself 

Ethereum’s [ETH] Q2 rally has cooled off after doubling from $1400 to $2800 in April and May.

The strong recovery in early Q2 was boosted by aggressive demand from institutions as U.S Spot ETH ETF net inflows surged to $564M in May. 

In June, the inflows increased and crossed $1 billion with only three days of trading left in the month. Unfortunately, speculative interest remained muted as ETH fluctuated between $2.8k and $2.3k. 

ETH’s speculative appetite drops

During Q2’s upswing, Open Interest (OI) hiked from $17 billion to $41 billion, pushing ETH from $1.4k to $2.8k.

This highlighted a 2.4x demand spike in the derivatives market. 

However,, since mid-June, demand has waned as the OI declined by $10 billion from  $41 billion to $31 billion. As expected, ETH’s price followed suit and dipped from $2.8k to $2.1k, before briefly reclaiming $2.4k at press time. 

This contraction defied the massive inflows seen in ETH ETFs. In fact, this week alone, the ETF products attracted $232M. 

The Options market painted a similar cautionary tale, especially in the mid-term. 

A time for caution?

According to the 25 Delta Skew indicator, the 1-week (orange) and 1-month (cyan) tenors jumped to 6% and 15% earlier in the week, underscoring the strong demand for short-dated calls (bullish bets). This hinted at the 18% relief bounce from $2.1k to $2.5k.  

However, the skew dropped to 1% and 3% for 1-week and 1-month tenors – A sign that the recent buying euphoria may have cleared.

On the contrary, the 3-month tenor turned negative and slipped nearly to -2%, hinting at a premium for puts (bearish sentiment) in Q3. 

Simply put, Futures traders have been cautious about ETH’s prospects in the mid-term, despite the short-term bullish outlook. 

Still, the mixed readings didn’t overrule the fact that ETH was in buy zone. At least based on the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). 

This indicator tracks holders’ profitability, with potential sell pressure marking previous local peaks and bottoms. Notably, SOPR readings above 1.0, especially above 1.06, marked high unrealized profits and local peaks in 2024 and 2025. 

Readings below 1 marked bottoms and attractive buy zones though. At press time, the SOPR was at a neutral level of 1, and an extra dip could offer a great bargain if history repeats itself.