Ethereum: Despite bleak price action in ETH, here’s what derivatives data has to say
Ethereum’s progress seems to have absolutely stalled as the king of altcoins has failed to recuperate its losses from the first quarter of the year.
Edging around $3k, ETH was still doing better until the end of April, right after which the altcoin lost extremely crucial support that could have helped it bounce back towards $3,200.
This level is the 23.6% Fibonacci level which coincides at $2,815, which ETH was testing 48 hours ago but failed to close above it. The 8.4% decline that followed left the price trading at $2,686 as of press time.
But from here on, the important question is,
Can Ethereum jump to $4-5k range by 24 June?
The reason why this matters is that that date holds the biggest expiry of the second quarter, with over 618.3k open contracts looking to cash profits. Now, most of the open contracts set to expire on this day are poised for a rally.
About 67% or 420k contracts are bullish bets using calls, and the Open Interest by Strike indicates that there is a high demand for the price to reach either $4k or $5k.
Even though 140k contracts are calling for $10k as well, but the likelihood of that happening is pretty low. However, ETH still does have an opportunity to reach $4k or $5k, provided there is support from the market.
Firstly for Ethereum to reach $4k from its current trading price, the altcoin will have to rise by 49.19%, and for the same to happen for $5k, ETH needs to mark a 86% rally in the next 48 days.
Now the reason why either of these is possible is that the same has happened before as well.
Back in August 2021, ETH registered a 121% increase in the span of 46 days, followed by another similar rally of 73.91% in October.
Provided back then, the market was in a bullish state, Ethereum might not be too far away from recovery since price indicators are exhibiting the possibility of a flip in the trend with bulls taking charge within the next few days, which will, at the least set Ethereum to close above 23.6% Fib line.
But if the momentum fails to pick up strength, then 420k contracts can incur major losses.