Ethereum [ETH] and the question of whether we can expect March all over again

If you zoom out ETH’s chart, you will notice that its performance in July has similarities with its performance in March. Could this performance offer some insights into how ETH will perform in August?

ETH’s latest rally kicked off in mid-July and managed to push the crypto up by as much as 74%. More importantly, its price seemed to be stuck in a low-volatility range after its sharp crash from April to June.

Similarly, ETH rallied by roughly 42% from around mid-March, after being stuck in a low-volume range. It was preceded by a sharp crash between November 2021 and January 2022.

Source: TradingView

If ETH follows a similar pattern as it did in March, then August should deliver a bearish performance. Although this is entirely possible, most of the dynamics currently driving its price action are different now, compared to what was the case in March.

The two sides of the coin

One of the main differences is that ETH has almost doubled its drop from the ATH. Ethereum plans to roll out the final testnet called Goerli towards the end of the first week of August. The mainnet Merge is expected to take place in September. This means August is a critical month for the network and the altcoin.

Cryptocurrencies often rally a few weeks before their native networks go through a major upgrade. The Merge is the biggest network upgrade in Ethereum’s history. By the same premise, we can expect ETH to attract a lot of buyers in the weeks ahead of the Merge. Perhaps, this will also encourage investors to hold on to their ETH, rather than selling before the Merge.

The aforementioned expectations are consistent with ETH flows, especially over the last few days. Despite its rally, however, the number of active ETH addresses and receiving addresses fell slightly in the last 4 days. This is likely because investors anticipate some sell pressure near the current monthly top.

Source: Glassnode

New addresses and addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH also dropped, but they have already started recovering.

This confirms that the demand for ETH is strong, especially now that the network is in the last stretch before the Merge date.

Source: Glassnode

Conclusion

The Merge’s impact on ETH’s price action cannot be understated. However, investors should note that ETH is still heavily pegged to the rest of the market. Ergo, multiple pricing factors will influence its performance. However, a major drop would be seen as an opportunity for investors to scoop up ETH at a discount. Such a situation means ETH would likely maintain a healthy floor price.