Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
Ethereum [ETH] left its investors quite disgruntled after its inability to break the chains of its daily 20 EMA (red) for two months now. The ripples of the recent Bitcoin rally aided ETH’s falling wedge breakout to test the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
A sustained pullback below the Point of Control (POC, red) would hinder the near-term bullish endeavors.
Not losing the POC level could lead ETH into an extended squeeze before a trend-altering move. At press time, the alt was trading at $1,969.3, up by 4.32% in the last 24 hours.
ETH Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, ETH/USD
Trading against the current trend without a substantial surge in buying volumes may not turn out to be a profitable decision. Taking cognizance of the current market dynamics, the rejection at the 23.6% level could lead ETH into an extended tight phase near the POC region.
However, a convincing close below the POC would expose the coin to a 5-7% downside. Post this, the buyers would likely provoke a bounce-back from the $1,790-level.
Despite the recent breakout, the Supertrend has refrained from changing its stance as it stood in the red zone since 11 April.
On the flip side, Historically, the coin has displayed an inclination for buying comebacks after the gap between 20 EMA (red) and 50 EMA (cyan) extends beyond 13%. A gradual bounce-back from the POC region would help the alt test the 38.2% level in the days to come.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, ETH/USD
The RSI marked a decent recovery over the last four days but was yet to cross the midline and claim a bullish edge. Similarly, the CMF’s uptick saw a slowdown near the zero-mark.
Over the last few weeks, the OBV witnessed lower troughs and peaks alongside the price action. Thus, confirming the strength of the current direction.
Finally, all these indicators observed a bearish divergence with price over the last week and hinted at a possible near-term setback.
Conclusion
The bulls needed to step in to ramp up the buying volumes at the POC region to prevent a 5-7% downside risk.
A close below the $1956-mark would open a gateway for the near-term setbacks. An eventual recovery beyond the 20 EMA should serve as an entry trigger for the bulls. In this case, the take-profit level will stand near the $2,180-zone.
At last, investors/traders need to watch out for Bitcoin’s movement. Especially since ETH shares an 96% 30-day correlation with the king coin.
