The weekly performance of Bitcoin before its Options expiry on the 30th of April has been significant. BTC was up by more than 10% at press time heading into Friday’s $4.2 billion options expiry.
While there is current speculation on the asset registering another period of price swing following the expiry, the options market has had a different impact on Bitcoin over the long bullish term; one that may bring forward more interest than tomorrow’s expiry.
Bitcoin: Monthly Expiry vs Quarterly Expiry
While the monthly options contracts carry a massive capital tag, the chances of non-event following tomorrow’s event are high because of the overall balanced price action in April. $3.9 billion worth of contracts are set (on price $54,500) for the expiry. It means that if the price remains at this range, it will allow both calls and puts to be virtually balanced upon expiry.
Therefore, the chances of a non-event or basically low volatility price action are fundamentally high.
However, monthly options do not usually carry the interest of institutional traders as much as quarterly options. One reason is the fact that Quarterly options allow traders to acclimatize to changing trends over the period of three months, in order to maximize their profits.
At the moment, Bitcoin is amid a large bullish trend and its quarterly expiry has proved to be imperative to trigger a rally.
Options Market; Will it push BTC to $100,000?
Source: Trading View
Observing the quarterly expiry over the past 6 months or more, one can observe the rally. The collective bullish market has benefited from the overall options industry.
More than 100% surge has been witnessed over the past two cycles, and institutional traders are beginning to get a strong whiff of the market. At the moment, call buys on June 30th are placed at $80,000 which means traders are actually expecting the price to surpass this market before the next quarterly expiry.
Ideally, another 100% surge or above would lead to Bitcoin reaching a whopping $100,000 before June 30, and the possibility remains strong.
Ethereum benefiting from Options OI as well
The Options industry has been indicating the same bullish impact on Ethereum as well. Since the launch of ETH futures by CME, institutional trading has also been evident for Ether and the upcoming expiry for ETH is placed at $930 million.
At the moment, bulls have a $115 million advantage over ETH options; closing above $2,240 is a highly favorable outcome for the call buys.
For Ethereum, its recent all-time highs targets are evidence that Options pricing brings a certain degree of momentum during a bullish rally. For Bitcoin, the long-term pricing going up has been concrete, and its elusive $100,000 target could be dependent on the Options Industry.
