HYPE rockets 11% as Bitcoin climbs – But what happens if $40 fails again?

• HYPE has surged nearly 11% to reclaim the $39 level, edging closer to its all-time high. 
• Could this set the stage for a quick shakeout as leveraged longs get squeezed?

When it comes to Hyperliquid [HYPE], it’s starting to look like traders have been waiting for Bitcoin [BTC] to blink just so they could pounce. 

On the 9th of June, BTC printed its longest green candle in a month, up 4%. And right on cue, HYPE followed with an explosive 11.22% surge, smashing through $39 and closing the day at $39.171.

This marks the second time in June that HYPE has taken a swing at the $40 resistance. The last two attempts? Both got smacked down by broader market weakness, dragging HYPE into the red.

Source: TradingView (HYPE/USDT)

But the current structure is showing more resilience. 

RSI remains in check, even on lower timeframes. This breakout is now being backed by a sharp 11.90% spike in Open Interest, pushing it to a record $1.69 billion, even higher than the peaks seen during the last two rallies.

So, will this be the breakout that finally clears the $40 supply wall and launches HYPE into price discovery? The technicals are aligning, but it all hinges on whether conviction can overpower the next wave of capitulation.

HYPE heats up: Is a breakout just one candle away?

Smart money stepping in at the top is often a powerful signal, and this time is no exception. Lookonchain flagged a fresh whale entry: 126,353 HYPE scooped up at an average cost of $39.1. 

Sure, that’s conviction at a key resistance. But does that signal a confirmed bottom? Not quite. 

Previous attempts at new all-time highs were also met with heavy whale inflows and rising Open Interest. In fact, on the 26th of May, HYPE tagged its record high of $39.12, backed by a then-record $1.39 billion in OI.

Source: CoinGlass

The setup looked textbook bullish, until it wasn’t. What followed was a swift reversal. A wave of deleveraging dragged OI down to $1.19 billion, and HYPE retraced to $31.41 in under five days.

Now, with overheating signals creeping back in, FOMO’s probably on the sidelines. A pullback? Still very much in play.

That said, HYPE’s been glued to BTC. If Bitcoin can hold $109k, or punch through $110k, it could flip sentiment fast. FOMO comes rushing back, and $40 finally breaks.

But holding that level? Still a tough ask. With liquidity heavily concentrated in derivatives, the risk of a sharp unwind remains elevated.