Hyperliquid faces $860M token unlock – Can HYPE absorb the supply?

Hyperliquid [HYPE] is heading into a major supply event, with core contributors set to receive another large chunk of HYPE tokens.

According to the Tokenomist data, on the 6th of September, contributors released just 0.19%, worth $36.56 million, far below the intended 2.32% scheduled allocation.

This gap matters because Hyperliquid faces another 9.92 million HYPE release on the 6th of October, valued near $860 million, representing nearly 3.9–4.5% of the circulating supply.

Needless to say, this creates a substantial risk of dilution if contributors claim and sell heavily.

Moreover, the price of these new tokens is significantly larger than the average daily spot volume. Essentially, this means heavy distributions could cause a tremendous decrease in market liquidity, ultimately putting downward pressure on the price.

However, the September scheduled supply may not reach markets immediately. Therefore, contributor wallet activity will help determine if the 6th of October token distribution causes true selling pressure or another small token distribution.

Bitwise adds $10.5M in HYPE demand

While October introduces a potential supply increase, institutional demand is already building another side of HYPE’s liquidity equation. After four days without purchases, Bitwise’s BHYP clients bought $10.5 million in HYPE on on the 4th of September.

With each purchase averaging approximately $85 per token, this totals approximately 123,500 HYPE. Cumulative purchases by the BHYP investor base total $166.3 million.

As such, however, the $10.5 million spent on HYPE by BHYP investors on Friday equates to less than one percent of the 9.92 million tokens set to be unlocked as part of Hype’s October schedule.

The difference here illustrates how BHYP cannot handle the headline unlock by itself should heavy contributions from participants occur. However, continued institutional demand will likely create softer incremental selling rather than eliminating it.

Furthermore, BHYP inflows would strengthen that buffer, while stalled purchases would leave market liquidity carrying more of the burden.

HYPE burns add another layer of demand

The demand supporting HYPE extends beyond outside buyers. This is because Hyperliquid’s trading activity also creates continuous token purchases.

In the last 24 hours, $859,500 in fees generated $823,800 in HYPE-directed revenue as of writing. In turn, this funded purchases of 9,730 tokens.

Those tokens, worth $829,500, were bought near $85.27 before being permanently burned. This mechanism matters because every burn removes purchased HYPE rather than simply shifting tokens between holders.

According to OnChain Lens, lifetime removals of HYPE have reached 48.42 million HYPE. This accounts for only 4.84% of the 1 billion max HYPE token limit. Although current burns cannot match major unlocks anytime soon, they do continually lower the available pool of HYPE tokens over time.

Thus, increasing trade volume could provide a faster way for HYPE to continue growing internal demand by institutions.

Final Summary

• Hyperliquid [HYPE] faces a 9.92 million-token October unlock, with actual contributor claims determining the scale of supply pressure.
• Bitwise demand and Hyperliquid burns provide absorption but remain too small to offset heavy contributor distribution alone.