ICP eyes $2.80 support as fears of an extended bearish cycle remain
ICP's rejection from just above the $4 level lined up with the higher timeframe bearish swing structure.
The crypto AI sector saw a slight decline in total market capitalization. From $22.61 billion on the 9th of May, the market cap of the sector has shrunk slightly to $21.01 billion, though it was up 21% over the past month.
The top six tokens by market cap in the sector showed mixed performance over the past week, but Internet Computer [ICP] was the weakest among them. It was down 5.35% in 24 hours and 8.7% in a week.
The recent losses could be because Coinbase delisted ICP/USDT, a non-USD pair. It should be noted that the exchange has not halted all ICP-related services.
ICP’s warning signs
In a recent report, AMBCrypto had observed that the higher timeframe price structure was bearish. Traders should beware of the rally, which at that time was at $3.7.
Since reaching a high of $4.09, the AI crypto token has receded by 30.8%. ICP has fallen back into the local range (purple) between $2 and $2.84.
Combined with the higher timeframe bearish structure and the quick bearish reaction from the $4 supply zone, it appeared likely that the altcoin would see further losses.
The $2.8 region has acted as both support and resistance since December 2025, and a price bounce from this level was possible.
If it does occur, such a bounce might not last long owing to the profit-taking activity from holders. The MVRV ratio is used to gauge the actual profitability of tokens.
In the chart above, the time-bound versions of this metric were used to understand if different cohorts of holders were underwater or not.
Since October 2025, whenever the 365-day MVRV ratio of ICP climbed into positive territory, a sharp correction has followed. It occurred in November, January, March, and May.
It indicated that ICP tokens that had moved at least once within the past year were back in profits after the steady downtrend. This resulted in profit-taking activity and a steep price correction.
If this pattern holds up, the altcoin is likely to test the $2.2-$2.3 lows later this month.
Final Summary
- The ICP rejection from just above the $4 level lined up with the higher timeframe bearish swing structure.
- The 365-day MVRV ratio showed a pattern that could see further losses for the altcoin.
