Is Bitcoin losing its momentum?
- Bitcoin showed reduced wallet growth and declining mean transaction sizes.
- Traders have turned bearish, and implied volatility has decreased, suggesting a period of caution in the market.
Bitcoin [BTC] continued testing the patience of its holders, as it meandered around the $25k-mark at the time of writing. Moreover, recent data suggested a slowdown, adding to the king coin’s descending momentum.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-2024
Stepping on the brakes
One significant indicator of this slowdown was the overall relative change in Bitcoin wallets over a 30-day period. Although wallets were still expanding, their growth rate had decreased, particularly among those holding 10 – 10,000 Bitcoins.
These larger cohorts tend to have a more pronounced effect on market dynamics.
Thus, Bitcoin’s declining momentum could impact its performance and investor sentiment. Slower growth may discourage new investors and speculators, potentially leading to stagnation or a drop in the coin’s price.
Another concerning sign was the mean transaction size of transactions. As per Glassnode, Bitcoin’s mean transaction size, when averaged over seven days, reached a one-month low of 518.646.
This drop in mean transaction size usually means reduced activity or a shift in the type of network transactions.
Previous 1-month low of 518.770 was observed on 21 August 2023
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) September 5, 2023
Bitcoin also faced challenges in the NFT sector. Notably, activity across all major exchanges related to Ordinals declined, reflecting a broader trend of waning enthusiasm.
How are traders doing?
Traders have turned bearish on Bitcoin, as indicated by the rising put-to-call ratio. This ratio grew from 0.42 to 0.47 in recent weeks.
A higher put-to-call ratio suggested that more traders were betting on a decline in Bitcoin’s price rather than its rise, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards caution.
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Additionally, the implied volatility for Bitcoin also fell over the past few months. Implied volatility measures the market’s expectations for future price fluctuations. A decrease in implied volatility suggests that traders anticipate a period of price stability or predictability.
While this can be seen as a positive sign for some investors, it may also indicate a lack of speculative interest, potentially contributing to Bitcoin’s unassuming price range.