Kalshi vs Polymarket: Jupiter’s bet heats up prediction wars
Will Polymarket keep its market share as Kalshi expands on-chain?
Key Takeaways
How’s Kalshi empowering Jupiter’s new prediction market?
It serves as the liquidity backbone for Jupiter’s event contracts and bet settlements.
Will it give Kalshi a lead over Polymarket?
Maybe in the short-term. But both platforms are aggressively expanding with a near 50/50 market share as of writing.
Kalshi has expanded its prediction market offering to Solana [SOL] via Jupiter [JUP]. The top Solana DEX aggregator announced its beta version of “Jupiter Prediction Market” and added that the underlying liquidity will be powered by Kalshi.
This could enrich Jupiter’s offerings and traction- perps, spot swaps, on-chain stocks and now prediction markets. But beyond the surface, the debut looks like Kalshi’s proxy war for market share dominance against Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket
For the unfamiliar, Kalshi is a CTFC-regulated platform, but it’s a Web2, meaning it’s centralized. But it has been punching above its weight and is a top contender in the space.
Polymarket, on the other hand, started off as a decentralised app on Polygon [MATIC], an Ethereum L2. Now it has partnered with X (formerly Twitter) to allow normies to bet on whatever events they like with a YES/NO option.
However, it was banned from the U.S in 2022 for operating without a license, but has since settled with the regulator and plans to resume operation.
In fact, the NYSE parent company, ICE, made a strategic $2B investment that would allow global financial firms to use Polymarket’s data for risk management.
During the ban, however, Kalshi grabbed market share and has been on a tear. Throughout 2025, Kalshi’s market dominance climbed to a high of 65% as of late September.
Market share battle reignites
But Polymarket appears to be making a comeback.
As of October, Polymarket had a 52% market share, with over $690 million in weekly volume, while Kalshi controlled 46%. In both platforms, sports, crypto and politics are the major categories driving volumes.
Kalshi, however, continued to dominate in sports trading, recording $866 million in volume, nearly double Polymarket’s $414 million. It also led in Open Interest, suggesting stronger long-term positioning.
So, the ongoing trend of Polymarket expanding to traditional markets like X, while Kalshi partnering with on-chain providers, appeared as a power battle.
But with new players entering the space, it remains to be seen how this vicious fight for market dominance will play out in the next few months.
