ONDO faces fresh $1.4M Coinbase supply: Can exchange outflows protect $0.345?

Ondo [ONDO] faced renewed supply concerns after its team-linked wallet deposited 4.019 million tokens worth roughly $1.4 million into Coinbase. 

The wallet had received 20 million ONDO one day before making the exchange-bound transfer. Part of that newly received allocation moved directly into an environment where holders could access market liquidity. 

However, the transaction did not confirm a sale, since exchange deposits alone cannot establish the wallet’s eventual action. The wallet also retained most of the 20 million ONDO allocation after transferring only 4.019 million tokens. 

Still, the Coinbase destination increased the relevance of the movement for ONDO’s near-term exchange supply.

Broader market flows presented a different picture, however, with exchange withdrawals continuing to offset incoming supply.

$1.09 million outflows counter fresh supply

Broader ONDO flows had leaned toward withdrawals, creating a notable contrast with the team-linked Coinbase deposit. 

Spot netflows reached approximately -$1.09 million on the 9th of August, meaning withdrawals exceeded exchange inflows during that session.

The latest $1.4 million team-linked deposit, however, exceeded August 9’s net outflow in nominal value. 

Yet, sustained negative netflows could gradually absorb additional exchange-bound supply if withdrawals continued across subsequent sessions. The balance, therefore, depends on persistence rather than a single daily reading.

Can the 0.618 Fib protect ONDO?

ONDO had retraced toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.3450 after sellers erased much of July’s recovery. This zone carried greater relevance because 0.618 often marks a critical retracement area within an established price swing.

Price remained around $0.352, keeping ONDO narrowly above this support during the latest session. Meanwhile, RSI had weakened to 43.84, below its 50.83 average, leaving buying strength subdued near the Fib zone.

Holding $0.345 could establish the retracement as support and encourage a recovery toward the $0.3608 midpoint. 

A stronger rebound could then reopen $0.3766, where the 0.382 retracement created the next significant hurdle. However, a decisive loss of $0.345 would weaken the recovery structure and favor deeper retracement. 

Such weakness could pull ONDO toward the 0.786 Fib at $0.3224. Meanwhile, $0.2937 would represent a complete retracement of the measured advance.

Downside liquidity reinforces the $0.345 test

Liquidation positioning added further significance to the same lower price region highlighted by the Fibonacci structure. 

The 24-hour Binance heatmap had concentrated stronger nearby liquidation liquidity below ONDO’s roughly $0.35 trading area.

Notably, dense clusters had developed around $0.343–$0.345, almost directly alongside the $0.3450 Fibonacci support. Additional liquidity had accumulated closer to $0.340, extending the downside concentration beneath that technical level.

Upside liquidity had also appeared around $0.355–$0.360, although those clusters carried less intensity than the downside concentrations. 

A decline through $0.345 could draw price deeper into the lower liquidity region and increase volatility. Alternatively, defending the zone and reclaiming $0.360 could reduce immediate downside exposure.

Final Summary

• ONDO’s $1.09M exchange outflows are countering fresh supply from the team-linked Coinbase deposit.
• Holding $0.345 could support recovery, while a breakdown could expose $0.3224 next.