ONDO whales move 10.7M tokens – Can bulls absorb the supply?

Ondo’s [ONDO] exchange-bound whale activity intensified after two large wallets transferred 10.712 million ONDO to Coinbase, reviving concerns over potential distribution. A wallet linked to the team deposited 4.125 million ONDO worth about $1.57 million.

Another institutional wallet followed with 6.587 million ONDO valued near $2.51 million. Such movements often increase the amount of immediately tradable supply, encouraging traders to watch whether fresh selling emerges. 

However, exchange deposits alone did not confirm liquidation because large holders also use centralized platforms for custody or internal portfolio management. 

Therefore, the market’s reaction depended less on the transfers themselves and more on whether buyers could absorb any additional supply entering circulation over the following sessions.

Spot and futures traders leaned toward selling

Market order flow painted a noticeably cautious picture despite the attention surrounding ONDO’s whale activity. 

Both Spot Taker CVD and Futures Taker CVD remained seller-dominant. This indicates aggressive sell orders continued to outweigh market buys across spot and derivatives markets. 

Such positioning suggested buyers had not yet regained enough conviction to reverse the prevailing order flow even after ONDO defended key support. 

Even so, persistent selling pressure did not immediately trigger a breakdown because the price remained relatively stable throughout the observed period. Instead, bearish participation reflected hesitation rather than panic.

The behavior left ONDO in a phase where stronger demand would have been required to invalidate the ongoing sell-side imbalance and restore broader confidence.

Long traders refused to abandon conviction

Derivatives positioning continued telling a different story from the order-flow data. 

At press time, the OI-Weighted Funding Rate remained positive at approximately 0.0027%, confirming leveraged traders still paid a premium to maintain long exposure. Positive funding generally reflected bullish positioning instead of outright bearish expectations, even though aggressive market selling continued dominating execution. 

However, the relatively modest funding value also indicated excessive optimism had not entered the market. As a result, leveraged participants appeared willing to defend the prevailing trend without reaching overcrowded long positioning. 

The divergence between positive funding and seller-dominant Taker CVD left ONDO at an important crossroads. This is because derivatives traders retained confidence while spot execution continued favoring sellers.

Can ONDO build enough strength for another breakout?

ONDO continued to defend the $0.373 support after retreating from the $0.4236 resistance, keeping its broader recovery structure intact despite recent profit-taking. 

Instead of breaking lower, price entered a tight consolidation range, showing sellers had slowed the advance without forcing a decisive bearish reversal. At the time of writing, the RSI cooled to 50.36 from higher levels and slipped below its 55.98 signal line, reflecting fading buying strength rather than outright weakness. 

Meanwhile, the DMI still favored bulls, with +DI at 25.67 remaining above -DI at 17.41. However, the narrowing gap suggested buyers had lost part of their earlier advantage. The ADX at 24.83 indicated trend strength had moderated, leaving ONDO in a balance between accumulation and distribution. 

If buyers reclaim stronger control, the token could challenge $0.4236 again. Otherwise, losing $0.373 would likely expose $0.3400, where the next meaningful demand zone awaited.

Final Summary

• ONDO held above key support despite persistent sell-side pressure across spot and futures markets.

• Positive funding showed longs remained confident, though buyers needed stronger demand to regain control.