Polkadot: $3.82 or bust – DOT bulls face their most important test yet

• DOT’s price approaches a critical breakout point after rebounding from a descending wedge structure.
• Liquidation clusters and net outflows strengthen the bullish momentum near the $3.82 resistance level.

Polkadot [DOT] is showing early signs of a bullish reversal, marked by a TD Sequential buy signal on the 4-hour chart and a decisive test of the descending wedge resistance.

At press time, DOT traded at $3.66, marking a 4.93% daily gain—hinting at renewed momentum behind the move.

This rebound brings the altcoin directly beneath the $3.82 resistance — a critical barrier that has consistently rejected upward attempts. If bulls flip this zone into support, the next leg could stretch toward $4.78.

However, failure here might pull DOT back to $3.27. That fallback would preserve the wedge structure and likely delay any sustained reversal.

Source: TradingView

DOT traders tilt cautiously bullish

DOT’s technical outlook has started to lean in favor of the bulls.

The 9-day moving average has now crossed above the 21-day MA around $3.61, signaling an early bullish crossover. Therefore, short-term momentum appears to be shifting. 

Additionally, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed an ADX reading of 31.98, confirming the presence of a strong trend. 

Although the -DI still exceeds the +DI, the decreasing gap suggested that the bearish pressure was gradually fading. 

Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, traders in derivatives markets leant cautiously optimistic. The Long/Short Ratio hovered at 1.0137, with 50.34% of positions skewed long.

While not aggressively bullish, the slight tilt reflected expectations of an upside continuation, particularly if DOT cracks the $3.82 ceiling.

Whales retreat as bulls emerge

Coinglass data revealed a dense cluster of short liquidations between $3.70 and $3.83. A breakout above this range could force short sellers to exit, triggering a cascade of liquidations that drives the price even higher.

This liquidity pocket could serve as the fuel for DOT’s breakout rally. 

Source: CoinGlass

Spot exchange flow on the 17th of April supported the bullish case. Outflows reached $4.56 million, exceeding inflows of $4.42 million.

Thus, more DOT has been moving off exchanges, indicating reduced sell pressure and possible accumulation. 

When combined with the technical and sentiment-driven momentum, this data reinforces the argument that DOT is preparing for a significant directional move.

Will DOT finally reclaim bullish control?

All signs suggest that Polkadot is preparing to challenge a critical resistance zone. The bullish crossover, rising trend strength, and exchange outflows point toward strengthening momentum.

However, the $3.82 resistance still stands as the final barrier. 

If DOT breaks and holds above this level, the rally could accelerate toward $4.78. Otherwise, another rejection could stall the breakout and reintroduce short-term bearish pressure.