Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.
Stellar [XLM], at press time, was consolidated while witnessing a fierce clash between the buyers and sellers near the Point of Control (POC, red). The recent drawdowns entailed a bearish pennant on XLM’s daily timeframe.
Any close below the pennant could pave a way for a decline in the coming sessions. The bulls needed to inflict an uptick in the buying volumes to invalidate the current bearish tendencies.
At the time of writing, XLM traded at $0.11233, down by 2.57% in the last 24 hours.
XLM Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, XLM/USD
This bearish pull from the $0.2 marked a three-month trendline resistance (white, dashed) on its daily chart. The alt lost over 58% (from its April highs) and hit its 19-month low on 18 June.
This trendline resistance has constricted most recovery over the last few months. Consequently, the recent up-channel breakdown transposed into a bearish pennant. As a result, XLM fell below the 20 EMA (red) and exhibited a bearish edge.
Should the bears continue to ramp up their pressure, they would aim to break below the pennant. A close below this level could expose XLM to a downside toward the $0.1019-zone.
Should the buyers find renewed pressure, the immediate trendline resistance could undermine the buying efforts. Also, with the near-term EMA’s looking south, the sellers have reiterated their edge in the current dynamics.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, XLM/USD
The RSI has taken a bearish stance over the last few days. The 42-level resistance has bogged down the near-term buying efforts on the chart.
Furthermore, the OBV’s higher peaks over the last week marked a bearish divergence with the price action. This reading blended well with the ongoing bearish outlook.
Conclusion
Considering the current bearish pennant setup approaching the south-looking 20 EMA, XLM could see a potential decline. A break below the pattern could expose the alt to a 9% downside risk.
However, investors/traders should factor in broader market sentiment and on-chain developments to make a profitable move. This activity would be imperative to minimize the risk of any bearish invalidations.
