This analyst thinks SHIB price prediction of $1 is ‘garbage,’ here’s why

• Metrics including the Network Growth and exchange flow showed that the token might never hit $1.
• The NVT Signal increased, suggesting a possible price decrease.

“It’s not going to happen.”

These were the exact words of Zach Humphries, a crypto analyst, after some Shiba Inu [SHIB] predictions showed that the memecoin could hit $1.

According to Humphries’s YouTube video, SHIB would never hit $1. His opinion was based on the fact that the price would make the token the cryptocurrency with the largest market cap. This, he considered to be impossible.

SHIB at $1 means that the market cap would surpass that of Bitcoin [BTC]. Using AMBCrypto’s market cap calculator,  the price of the Shiba Inu token would have to increase by 175.69x to hit Bitcoin’s market cap.

For a token with an all-time increase of 742,630%, the prediction might not seem bizarre.

This is not 2021 anymore

However, SHIB does not have the kind of hype it had between 2020 and 2021. When we compared its price action in recent times to that period, we could not overlook the glaring disparity in performance.

On a Year-To-Date (YTD) basis,  SHIB’s price has decreased by 7.23%. This made it one of the worst-performing cryptocurrencies out of the top 20.

If the token wants to exit its underwhelming state, then some things need to happen. One of the things that needs to change is the state of its Network Growth. Network Growth measures adoption. If the metric increases, then it means new addresses are becoming active.

However, a decline in Network Growth suggests a decrease in traction. At press time, on-chain data showed that Shiba Inu’s Network Growth had plummeted to 548. Should the number keep falling, SHIB’s price would most likely follow.

Source: Santiment

Another thing that needs to change could be found in exchanges. According to AMBCrypto’s analysis of Santiment, the exchange inflow was 24.88 billion. On the other end, SHIB’s exchange outflow was 17.53 billion.

SHIB to hit new lows?

Since the inflow outpaced the outflows, it implied that more market participants were selling SHIB compared to those accumulating. However, it is important to note that an increase in exchange outflow over the inflow would not take SHIB any close to $1.

Yes, the price might increase. But a movement in that price direction looked unlikely. SHIB’s All-Time High (ATH) was $0.000086, indicating that the cryptocurrency was 91.30% down from the high.

AMBCrypto checked Shiba Inu’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Signal and noticed that it has been increasing. The NVT Signal uses a 90-day moving average of the daily transaction volume against the raw daily transaction volume.

Historically, low NVT values coincide with market bottoms.

Source: Glassnode

Read Shiba Inu’s [SHIB] Price Prediction 2024-2025

However, SHIB’s NVT Signal suggests that the cryptocurrency was not trading at a discount.

Hence, in the short term, the price might nosedive. In addition, this condition would make it difficult for Shiba Inu to inch any closer to $1 in the long run.