U.S. Spot Solana ETFs: A real possibility or a regulatory hurdle?

• Analysts differ on whether Spot SOL ETFs were possible without Futures markets.
• Lack of regulatory clarity on SOL could be a challenge, but some analysts are confident of approval if Trump wins. 

The market seems divided on whether U.S. Spot Solana [SOL] ETFs could become a reality after recent filings by digital asset managers VanEck and 21Shares. 

But most agree that U.S. elections could determine the fate of SOL ETFs. Nevertheless, the divergent views on how the lack of Futures ETFs could derail the approval still persist. 

In a recent Bloomberg interview, Mathew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, maintained that the futures ETFs requirement is “SEC psyops.” He added, 

‘There are a number of ETFs that trade where the futures market is irrelevant to the price formation like Uranium ETFs, power ETFs…With the slight change in the regulatory environment in Washington, we think this (SOL ETF) we’ll get approved.’ 

Galaxy Digital disagrees on SOL ETFs

However, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas viewed VanEck’s SOL ETF filing as a “call option” on the U.S. election.

It meant that it could be greenlighted with a new administration, especially with Donald Trump regaining the top seat. 

Sigel also expressed a similar sentiment. He maintained that SOL ETF could still be approved even if Biden wins the election, provided the current SEC chair is replaced or re-classify SOL as a commodity. 

However, Galaxy Digital’s global head of asset management, Steve Kurz, disagreed with Sigel’s stance. Kurz underscored that, based on legislation and previous court process, 

“You need a futures market for Solana to become an ETF. You have those for ETH; you don’t have those for Solana.”

Overall, market expectations of the SOL ETF greenlight were still low, with Polymarket indicating about 13% approval odds by 2024. 

Most market observers perceive Donald Trump as pro-crypto, so his victory could boost the odds of SOL ETF approval. 

On the price charts, SOL traded at $146, slightly down by 1% in the past 24 hours but up 7% when adjusted on a weekly basis following the optimism of SOL ETF filings. 

However, the price technical indicators flashed a neutral position as of press time, meaning SOL’s price could go either way.