Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.
For over eight months, Polkadot [DOT] has been struggling to bring forth a change in the long-term bearish narrative. The last two weeks, however, have been somewhat hopeful as the alt finds a position above the basis line (green) of the Bollinger Bands (BB).
While the recent growth aided DOT’s move toward its immediate supply zone in the $8.6-$9.1 range, the sellers could aim to pose near-term hurdles. At press time, DOT traded at $8.62, up by 4.87% in the last 24 hours.
DOT Daily Chart
Source: TradingView, DOT/USDT
The revival from the alt’s 18-month low on 13 July has reignited the near-term buying pressure. This renewed force helped DOT flip its four-month trendline resistance (yellow, dashed) to support.
Over the last few weeks, DOT has been extending its bullish volatile break. As a result, it kept hovering near the upper band of the BB. Should the current candlestick reverse from the $8.6-$9.1 resistance range, DOT could see a near-term setback. In this case, Potential targets would lie in the $7.3-zone near the basis line of BB.
Traders/investors should watch for a reversal from the immediate resistance range to identify the chances of this near-term drop. Any bearish invalidations or premature bull runs could be short-lived by the $9.8-mark resistance.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, DOT/USDT
After escaping its sideways track for nearly a month, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) took a bullish stance and revealed an edge for the buyers. To alter this bullish outlook, the sellers needed to test and eventually breach the 56-mark support.
However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) saw lower peaks while the price action marked higher highs. This affirmed a bearish divergence with the price. Similarly, the Volume Oscillator resonated with the CMF and confirmed a bearish divergence.
Conclusion
In view of the immediate resistance range, overbought readings on the BB, and the divergences on the indicators, DOT could see a near-term decline before picking itself up. The targets would remain the same as discussed above.
However, an overall market sentiment analysis becomes vital to complement the technical factors to make a profitable move.
