Privacy coin Monero [XMR] has recovered 17% this week after Bitcoin defended $60K support. This helped ease last week’s bleed-out and broader market correction triggered by Bitcoin’s losses.
If XMR’s 2026 short-term recovery pattern repeats, then the recent bounce could end up hitting the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average, blue line).
For perspective, the February dump was stopped around the $300 price level. The XMR relief rally surged to the 200-day SMA before sellers offloaded and pushed it lower. A similar trend has been observed in March, April, and May.
In fact, in May, XMR bulls climbed above the 200-day SMA roadblock but failed to defend it as a strong support.
It fell below the level in June, and the consequent dump eased around $300. So, if the trend seen over the past few months persists, the recent relief rally could extend to the 200-day SMA at $391.
That would imply that the recovery gains may extend from the current 17% to 33%, especially if BTC stays above $60K or climbs higher. A sustained surge could be confirmed if the RSI (relative strength index) climbs above the neutral level.
However, any further BTC losses could trigger a deeper 2022-style correction in XMR. That said, this week’s XMR rebound was more than just Bitcoin defending the key $60K support.
Short squeeze lifts XMR price higher
According to the liquidation heatmap, there was a massive liquidity pool of short positions around $340 (bright yellow lines). As such, the move higher was likely triggered by a short-squeeze of these leveraged bears.
Other upside liquidity pools were at $360 and above $380 levels, which could be of interest if the volatility persists. If the +$380 area coincided with the 200-day SMA, further reinforce it as the potential ceiling of the ongoing rebound.
On the lower side, there were leveraged long positions around $290-$300, which could further cement this area as potential support in the short term.
Beyond the charts, Monero has released post-quantum era upgrade plans that could have also boosted the bullish sentiment.
Overall, Bitcoin’s direction will influence the extent of the XMR recovery. However, bulls should watch out for $391 as a potential resistance for this relief rally.
Final Summary
- XMR’s weekly recovery gains hit 17% and could climb higher to 33% if the upside target of $391 is hit.
- Bitcoin’s defense of the $60K support and short squeeze triggered the latest relief pump.