The latest headlines are filled with posts about Bitcoin’s halving and its impact on Bitcoin’s price. These are popular facts and repeated several times as arguments for Bitcoin’s recent price rally. The repetition may have become so cruel, that memes on these facts are doing the rounds on Crypto Twitter. But the real question one needs to ask is “Is it really critical to rationalize the logical growth of an asset?”
Bitcoin was expected to increase in value after every halving by design, and what’s happening right now is no different. However, how Plan B chooses to look at halvings, through S2F is different in its entirety and after a long crypto winter, the current price rally agrees. The predictions that were seemingly irrational, are real now. Plan B’s prediction for Bitcoin’s price in the first half of 2020, more precisely May 2020 was a price point above $50000, however, the volatility and trade volume did not support the exponential rise in price and the month closed with BTC’s price under $10000. The model had investors anticipating a more volatile rally, and this led to detailed narratives of a price drop before Bitcoin’s rally picked up momentum and crossed the threshold of $10000 in August 2020. According to Plan B,
“#Bitcoin $38K is nice, but I am still waiting for that larger monthly jump that usually marks the phase transition / the point of no return”
The point of no return has not yet arrived. In their recent newsletter Pantera capital shared S2F projections for Bitcoin, without the accompanying dialogue of rationalization
The key themes that stood out in 2021, as Bitcoin rallied and altcoins are rallying alongside it now, are :
– Increasing inflation in most fiat currencies if not all
– Extremely accommodative / negative interest rates in most economies
– Continued and increasing institutional interest at the current price level, and irrespective of high price
– Altcoin and Decentralized finance (DeFi) growth and increasing TVL
Since narratives around Bitcoin’s price growth are already supporting one or more of these themes, it is likely to give a boost to the price and help in keeping Bitcoin’s price on course with Plan B’s S2F model’s predictions of crossing $100000 by August 2021.
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