Will Bitcoin’s [BTC] fate change during the final weeks of Q2? Assessing…
- BTC’s exchange reserve was declining, which indicates less selling pressure.
- Its long/short ratio declined while open interest increased, indicating bearish sentiments.
The second quarter of this year has not been the best for the crypto market, as most coins like Bitcoin [BTC] failed to register gains. As per CoinMarketCap, BTC was down by nearly 2% in the last 24 hours.
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Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price Prediction 2023-24
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $27,082.32, with a market capitalization of more than $523 billion. However, there were a few interesting datasets, which suggested that Q2’s last month might look different.
Q2’s ending can be different for Bitcoin
James V. Straten, a research analyst, pointed out a metric that suggested that there was a possibility of a price hike in the coming weeks. Historical data suggests that whenever the realized price gets above the long-term holders’ realized profit, the market turns bullish.
The next bullish #Bitcoin catalyst is for the realized price to get above Long Term Holder RP, less than an $800 difference now.
Interestingly enough, each time this flipping has occurred has happened mainly in June.
August 2012 (Halving November 2012)
June 2016 (Halving July… pic.twitter.com/2ARA28FOUX
— James V. Straten (@jimmyvs24) May 15, 2023
On 15 May 2023, the difference was just $800, increasing the chances of a crossover. It was also quite interesting to note that most of these crossovers happened in June. Therefore, it will be intriguing to watch how things turn out this year for Bitcoin.
Miners are having a good time
While BTC’s price remained lower than the $28,000-mark, Bitcoin miners had a few good days. Thanks to the achievements of Ordinals, miners’ revenue registered an increase. Glassnode alert recently also revealed that miners’ balances reached a new four-month high.
The previous four-month high of 1,826,091.503 was observed on 10 May 2023. However, it should be noted that at press time, miners’ revenue registered a decline.
📈 #Bitcoin $BTC Miners' Balance just reached a 4-month high of 1,826,168.066
Previous 4-month high of 1,826,091.503 was observed on 10 May 2023
View metric:https://t.co/cHhwgaCLee pic.twitter.com/SmVjyFiMrN
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) May 16, 2023
What to expect in the near term?
A look at CryptoQuant’s data suggested that things can get better in the near term as well. BTC’s exchange reserve was declining. This was optimistic, as it indicates less selling pressure.
Moreover, BTC’s Coinbase Premium also told a similar story: US investors’ buying pressure was relatively strong on Coinbase. However, not everything was picture perfect. Bitcoin’s taker buy/sell ratio was red, which reflects selling pressure being dominant in the futures market. The king of crypto’s aSORP was red too.
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A closer look at BTC’s derivatives market
Checking BTC’s metrics for the futures market revealed continued sideways price movement. For instance, BTC’s open interest was relatively high. The trend in the market for that option is expected to continue if open interest is rising and getting higher.
Additionally, Coinglass’ data revealed that BTC’s long/short ratio declined in the last few days, which suggested a bearish market sentiment.