Will September be kind to Solana once again? History says…
All eyes are on the $195-$215 range as SOL goes between breakout and breakdown.
Key Takeaways
Solana enters September with bullish momentum, historically one of its strongest months. All eyes are on whether SOL can reclaim its rally or face a key support retest around $195.
September has often been kind to Solana [SOL].
Over the past few years, the month has seen SOL post some of its strongest rallies, building a reputation for late-summer momentum.
But as September 2025 kicks off, will history repeat itself, or will Solana’s path take a different turn?
September’s track record
In four out of the last five years, SOL closed the month in green, posting returns of 29% in 2021, 8.2% in 2023, and 12.5% in 2024.
The averages back this up, with a 17% monthly gain on average and a 10.6% median return in September.
This made September one of Solana’s more reliable months compared to historically choppier periods like May or December.
Add to that the fact that, as of the 30th of August, 90% of Solana’s supply was in profit. Naturally, momentum appeared tilted toward the bulls.
Institutional bets push SOL higher
If the seasonal record wasn’t enough, fresh data showed muscle behind the rally.
In August, SOL’s Perpetual Futures Trading Volume hit an ATH of $43.88 billion, reclaiming the momentum last seen in late 2024.
At the same time, institutional players are loading up. The Strategic SOL Reserve reports that 13 entities now hold 8.27 million SOL (worth $1.72 billion), equal to 1.44% of total supply.
Notably, over half a million SOL ($104 million) was staked, earning nearly 7% yields.
A critical time ahead
Overall, Solana looked set for a make-or-break month.
At press time, SOL held steady around $204, hovering above key support levels highlighted by the Volume Profile around $195.
The RSI was at 56, neither overbought nor oversold. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands were beginning to tighten; a potential volatility squeeze (which often precedes a decisive move) is possible.
If buyers push past resistance at $215, momentum could carry SOL higher into September. However, if support at $195 broke, a retest of the $185 zone was likely.
