Bitcoin had been straying away from its expected price path as defined by PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow ratio throughout the year. With the May crash and Musk FUD, Bitcoin meeting the expected price seemed infeasible.
As a result, PlanB has now altered the Stock-to-Flow’s price points in order to obtain a more sustainable pattern for the king coin going ahead.
The new target for Bitcoin
PlanB recently shared an update about the S2F model where he cut down Bitcoin’s price prediction to $100k by the end of December.
This was done in accordance with the current price movement as according to PlanB for Bitcoin to achieve the $100k average this halving cycle, it will have to be above that average by mid-cycle, which is approximately by May 2022.
PlanB’s new S2F model | Source: PlanB
PlanB had earlier stated in June around the mining and Musk’s energy FUD that the worst-case scenario for 2021 would see Bitcoin above $135k by the end of December. This has now been significantly reduced to adapt to the halving cycle average.
PlanB’s earlier prediction | Source: Twitter
This basically means that in the next 49 days, Bitcoin is expected to make a 54.48% jump, with any possible corrections occurring in the first half of December, in order to carry the rally further into January 2022.
Bitcoin’s required rise | Source: TradingView – AMBCrypto
If we take into account the rally Bitcoin has already seen over the last 42 days which was about 48% that would bring the total rise of Q4 to 102%.
As mentioned yesterday, in comparison to the previous Q4s, the rise would be comparatively lesser but it would be what is expected out of Bitcoin at the moment.
What role do investors play in this?
In any case for the rally to be successful, we are required to see organic demand from investors and less due to FOMO.
Ever since Bitcoin crossed the $1 trillion mark on 7 October, we have seen over 3.45 million BTC being moved around. This accounts for about 18.3% of all BTC supply which is worth over $223.2 billion.
Bitcoin moved around post $1 trillion market cap | Source: Glassnode
Thus people are actively transacting Bitcoin and that is exactly what is needed going ahead as well. Although of the aforementioned amount, approximately 474k BTC was last spent above the current price.
These are those who purchased or sold around ATH levels. The ones who purchased it, are currently suffering losses since BTC is trading around $64.4k at press time.
But once Bitcoin regains the 4% loss from the last 4 days, these losses will turn back into profits.
