PEPE sees 4.54T token outflow – Is a bear trap about to unfold?

The timing of Pepe’s [PEPE] recent move couldn’t have come at a better time.

From a broader market perspective, the memecoin sector is still showing textbook volatility. Its market cap is up more than 2% on the weekly chart, while the 24-hour chart shows a 4% pullback, bringing the sector’s total valuation back to around $23 billion. This means that speculative interest among investors remains strong, and PEPE continues to be one of the key tokens driving that momentum.

As the chart below shows, PEPE rallied nearly 25% over four consecutive weeks, breaking above $0.000003. However, the rally has since lost steam, with the token dropping more than 5% over the past 14 days. In other words, PEPE has already retraced over 20% of its previous gains in less than two weeks.

In the current market setup, it’s therefore hard to say whether this is just a healthy pullback.

The logic is simple: While some profit-taking is expected after a strong rally, the decline is also happening as PEPE approaches a major resistance level and memecoin capital flows begin to weaken. That makes this correction different from a standard reset and raises the risk that bullish momentum could continue to fade. 

Against this backdrop, PEPE’s 5% decline could be the early stage of a deeper correction, with the $0.0000026 level emerging as the closest support to watch. That said, the one key “move” suggests bulls may already be positioning ahead of that scenario, strategically accumulating during the dip ahead of the next leg higher.

PEPE bulls make their move as exchange supply drops 

Notably, market sentiment around PEPE remains largely bullish.

However, the technicals are starting to tell a different story. While sentiment continues to improve, PEPE is struggling to build enough momentum to break through the key $0.000003 supply zone. The token has now been rejected at this level for the second time in less than a month, suggesting bears are still defending it aggressively. With memecoin volatility also picking up, bulls may need stronger bid pressure.

This is where Santiment’s latest on-chain data changes the picture. As the chart below shows, 4.54 trillion PEPE moved off exchanges in a single day, marking the memecoin’s largest net exchange outflow since the 14th of November, 2024. Large exchange outflows are often a sign that holders are moving tokens into private wallets instead of keeping them on exchanges for selling.

From PEPE’s current technical setup, that interpretation makes sense. 

As exchange balances decline, so does the amount of PEPE available for selling. More importantly, the outflows are arriving just as PEPE trades roughly 5% below its rejection at the $0.000003 resistance zone. That points to larger players absorbing supply into weakness instead of exiting position.

So, if buyers continue to absorb selling pressure, the recent breakdown below resistance could turn into a “bear trap”, setting the stage for another breakout attempt. 

Final Summary

• PEPE is facing a key test at the $0.000003 resistance level.
• A record 4.54 trillion PEPE exchange outflow suggests whales may be accumulating the dip.