The first wave of the alt season has hit portfolios across exchanges, and there are double-digit returns from alts like XRP, XTZ, BSV, XLM, NEO, and VET, among others in the top-30 cryptocurrencies based on market capitalization. Among alts whose prices are largely influenced by Hodler distribution and composition, XRP has the largest market capitalization and has offered the highest returns as well this past week (+77.32%).
The surging altcoins, in general, on their upward trajectories, have also started to see a drop in trade volume across exchanges, with the likes of OMG, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO, ALPHA registering a surge. What’s more, lesser-known alts like STX have also recorded a hike in social volumes, alongside other cryptos such as $XRP, $XTZ, $FTM, and $BTG.
Based on the attached chart, social volume is a key metric fueling the current uptick in prices. The other key metric this alt season is HODLing, HODLers and HODLer composition. Identifying the changing HODLer composition has become key to identifying an upcoming surge in price for alts like OMG, STX, UNI, BAT, ALGO, and ALPHA.
The average time for which HODLers are keeping alts in their portfolios is the top metric, followed by concentration by large HODLers and HODLers profitable at the current price. These on-chain metrics have become instrumental in predicting price rallies this season.
At the time of writing, the concentration by large HODLers was 96% for APLHA. However, only 53% of them were profitable at the said price. This seemed to suggest that with over a 100% hike in trade volume on top markets for ALPHA, there may be a rally towards the $2.5-level, a level last seen in February 2021.
In the case of STX, the social volume has led the rally. With an over 968% increase in 24-hour trade volume, STX was changing hands rapidly at press time. The price was up by over 20% in the last 24 hours and it looked likely to continue its rally this week.
For OMG, the target was $10, however, the drop in the trade volume (-33%) and the drop in price in the last 24 hours was signaling that there may be more price correction. In fact, the rally may have ended for OMG. The on-chain sentiment was bearish, according to IntoTheBlock. What’s more, less than 30% HODLers are profitable at the said price level, pointing to an end of the rally.
While the rally may be ending for OMG, it is anticipated that it may be extended in UNI’s case. Based on UNI’s price chart and on-chain analysis, the price may rally towards its ATH this week before taking a dip and ending the rally. This was evident from the hike in 24-hour trade volume and increase in price (nearly 3%).
Of the 77% concentration by large HODLers, 98% of them (HODLers) were profitable at the press time price level ($1.23).
There are other altcoins in the top-100 with low market capitalizations that may be poised to rally soon based on the same metrics, and they are WINk and ALPHA. Retail traders hoping to make double-digit gains this week as well are likely to consider adding these tokens from the top-100 in their portfolios. The upswing is coming for both mid and low-market capitalization alts this week.
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