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Analysis

Filecoin: Will the next couple of months usher in an uptrend

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Source: Canva

Filecoin (FIL) has vigorously lost most of its value in the last year since its April 2021 high. In the last six months, bulls could barely initiate a sustainable rally and succumbed to the long-term bearish trendline resistance (white, dashed).

The alt now aimed to enter into a tight phase in the $18-$20 mark before retesting its critical support and making a trend-commital move. At press time, FIL traded at $18.38, down by 2.37% in the last 24 hours.

FIL Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, FIL/USDT

Over the past year, FIL lost more than 92% of its value and witnessed a rather swift downturn. The alt saw two descending triangles in the last six months as the bears displayed their one-sided dominance. Consequently, it fell below its near-term EMAs while forming a sturdy trendline resistance. Not surprisingly, the Supertrend remained in the red zone since September of last year.

With the recent fall, FIL fell towards its All-time low on 24 February at the $16-mark. The sellers have been pushing the peaks below while the buyers try to cope up at the $18-support.

From here on, immediate support becomes the most vital price point for the bulls. If the price finds a close above this level, it would most likely enter into a squeeze phase between the $18-$20 range before falling back further. Any close below the $18-mark would trigger a selling signal as the bears could try to find newer lows. 

Rationale

Source: TradingView, FIL/USDT

The RSI has been oscillating sideways while the price marked lower peaks. This reading kept the bullish revival hopes alive from the $18-mark. Its immediate trendline support at the 36 mark would be vital for the bulls to defend.

The MACD has rather taken a back foot as its histogram lunged below the zero-line while the lines were on the verge of a bearish crossover.

Conclusion

FIL truly walked on thin ice now. The buyers must uphold the $18-support to prevent a major fallout. In which case, a near-term tight phase around its Point of Control would be likely before the alt falls back into its long-term trend. 

Besides, keeping an eye on Bitcoin’s movement and the broader sentiment would be important to complement the aforementioned analysis.

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With a background in financial analysis and reporting, Yash is a full-time journalist at AMBCrypto. He has a keen interest in blockchain technology, with a primary focus on technical analysis of cryptocurrencies.

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