PancakeSwap is in a downtrend but CAKE short sellers can wait for this scenario
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion
- The market structure and momentum were firmly bearish
- A retest of resistance can offer a shorting opportunity on PancakeSwap
PancakeSwap was trading within a range earlier in December. The violent selling pressure on 12 December forced prices to lose support at $3.83. A bearish retest of $3.9 as resistance on 14 December set the stage for the downtrend since then.
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The introduction of syrup pools which allowed CAKE staking to earn rewards from new Aptos projects could spur demand for the token. However, on-chain metrics and technical indicators did not show much promise for the bulls.
Bearish order blocks at $3.4 and $3.7 will impede the buyers
On the four-hour chart, two bearish order blocks were identified at $3.7 and $3.45 in the past week of trading. Furthermore, on the four-hour chart and higher timeframes, PancakeSwap has been trending downward since early November.
Based on the move down from $3.9 to $3.11, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels was drawn. They showed the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels to lie at $3.6 and $3.73. The market structure was also bearish, and the recent lower highs at $3.7 and $3.49 need to be broken for the bearish bias to change.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been below the neutral 50 mark since the bearish retest of the same level on 12 December. This showed that momentum was firmly in the hands of the bears. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) saw a large sell-off on 16 December and has been flat since then.
A retest of the $3.5 and $3.7 areas will offer selling opportunities, given the longer-term trend of CAKE. The 23.6% extension level of support at $2.93 is near a horizontal level of importance at $2.96.
The active address count remains steady but the MVRV ratio notes losses for holders
Over the past year, the 30-day active address count has steadily been within the 155k-170k area. This figure has trended lower since mid-November and stood at 138k at press time. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio (30-day) has also been in negative territory since 7 November. This showed that PancakeSwap tokens could be undervalued on the lower timeframes.
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A brief foray above 0% on December 10 was quickly reversed when the price fell from $4 to $3.2 in a week. If the MVRV rises back above 0, short-term holders can begin to look for selling opportunities at significant resistance levels.