Analysis
TRON [TRX] saw high volatility in May, could bulls be in the driving seat
Posted:
Journalist
Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
The TRON DAO acquired millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and TRX to safeguard the algorithmic stablecoin USDD. This saw a large spike in the market capitalization of the coin, as prices soared in the month of May.
Even as much of the rest of the altcoin market saw intense selling, especially on 12 May when USDT momentarily lost 5% against the dollar, TRX still had buyers as the price rose from $0.067 to right back above the $0.07 mark.
Volatility has been writ large on the charts in the past two weeks especially, but long-term investors do have opportunities to obtain a bargain price on their TRX.
TRX- 12 Hour Chart
Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView
The Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) showed that the $0.065 and $0.071 levels are the ones that bulls would seek to hold on to in the days and weeks to come. After a surge from $0.057 to $0.0928 in the past month, these two levels represent 78.6% and 61.8% retracements of this move. Hence, longer timeframe buyers could look to load up their bags in this area.
The $0.069-$0.0715 area has been a zone of resistance to the price going back to the start of the year. From late January, the price has formed a series of higher lows. In March 2022, the price was able to break past this resistance zone and set a higher high, and flipped the market structure from bearish to bullish on the higher timeframes.
Rationale
Source: TRX/USDT on TradingView
The Awesome Oscillator dropped below the zero line to indicate bearish momentum had the upper hand, and the CMF also dropped below the zero line to indicate that sellers were dominant in the past week.
On the other hand, the A/D indicator has formed a series of higher lows since the beginning of the year, to show that there has been a far greater buying volume than selling. This is in agreement with the bullish market structure.
The DMI showed that neither a strong bearish nor bullish trend was in progress, as the ADX, -DI, and +DI (yellow, red, and green respectively) were all below the 20 mark.
Conclusion
The indicators were in disagreement with one another, while the price action of the past four months suggested a bullish bias with some strong price swings in either direction in the past two weeks.
Overall, a TRX revisit to the $0.065-$0.071 area can be used to DCA into a long position, although a wide stop-loss could be useful. Risk and position size has to be managed with extreme caution.
