Why Solana’s ATH depends on Bitcoin’s breakout to $93K

• Solana has regained dominance over its rivals, setting SOL up for short-term gains. 
• However, reaching a new ATH might require a bit more time.

Defying market odds, hopes for Bitcoin [BTC] to hit $100K in one bull run seem to have wavered. Even with President Trump’s backing, caution is taking over the market.

Yet, the lack of a pullback suggests the bears aren’t winning just yet.

This climate has opened the door for altcoins to shine, breaking psychological barriers and outperforming Bitcoin with gains that have doubled its pace. 

Unlike the previous cycle, which saw Solana [SOL] reap the most benefits, its rivals have taken the spotlight this time, with Cardano [ADA] posting higher highs.

As Bitcoin struggles to break resistance at $93K, altcoins seem poised for short-term gains. 

For a parabolic run, however, BTC must surpass this resistance to restore investor confidence in the market. Meanwhile, Solana faces other challenges that, if unresolved, could hinder its push toward a new all-time high.

Two possible paths lie ahead for Solana

The last 24 hours have been crucial for Solana, breaking free from a five-day consolidation with a 9% jump in a single day, trading at $238, at the time of writing.

This level last seen in the same month three years ago, during the cycle when SOL reached its ATH of $260.

This breakout comes at a time when Bitcoin is locked in a tug-of-war to overcome resistance at $91K. Meanwhile, on the daily charts, XRP has stolen the spotlight.

While Solana remained stagnant, XRP surged with a massive rally, gaining over 70% and breaking the $1 barrier.

Together, these factors create a bullish outlook for Solana. The reasoning is simple: over the past five days, Solana’s consolidation was driven by investors redirecting their focus to XRP. 

However, XRP’s recent 7% drop back to its baseline signals weak hands exiting. This presented an opportunity for Solana bulls to capitalize on, which earlier analyses suggest they are already doing.

Notably, the increase in newly created wallets on the Solana network is approximately 30.77%, rising from 15.6 million to 20.4 million in just five days.

This surge reflected growing interest, fueled largely by FOMO, as anticipation for a breakout intensifies.

Source : SolScan

As a result, Solana seems poised for a short-term surge to around $248. However, given the extreme market volatility, its rally could be capped at this target.  

The next move might be a correction before reaching a new ATH or waiting for an underlying catalyst.

History suggests SOL may have to wait longer

While the aforementioned benchmark may not seem overly optimistic given the bullish on-chain data, the overall market sentiment must not be overlooked. 

The RSI is in an overbought state, with 81% of price movement over the last two weeks being upward, signaling overheating. Thus, to prevent weak hands from exiting, the focus now shifts to the fundamentals.

Psychologically, investors are at a crossroads regarding Bitcoin’s long-term potential, awaiting a major catalyst to push it above $93K.

Its consolidation below $91K suggests that bulls are consistently defying bearish pressure across various metrics.

While altcoins are capitalizing on this momentum, historically, parabolic rallies are often driven by Bitcoin itself.

So, unless stakeholders identify Bitcoin’s next market bottom, top altcoins may need to wait before breaking through psychological levels.

Read Solana’s [SOL] Price Prediction 2024–2025

In short, despite new entrants adopting a ‘long’ view on Solana, it might not be enough to break through $260. For a repeat of the 2021 cycle, bulls first need to break Bitcoin’s resistance at $93K.

This could spark a rally, with the next dip around $95K, potentially setting the stage for Solana to hit $260. For that to happen, investors must continue to favor SOL over other altcoins.