XRP bulls could face an uphill battle to climb above $0.4 and this could be the reason
Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
- The $0.4-$0.42 was a significant area for bulls to keep an eye on
- Another lower timeframe range formation could be in progress
XRP had a good start to November as it climbed from $0.44 to $0.5. However, as highlighted on the charts, the price was unable to push past the $0.47-$0.54 zone. This was a bearish order block from 10 May and opposed the buyers. In the past week, the sentiment changed to firmly bearish.
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The network’s realized profit and loss were in negative territory, and profitability was down as well. Given the bearish sentiment in the market and behind the coin, can XRP flip its longer-term trend to bullish? Or will any rallies to the $0.42 region see a quick reversal, due to the inefficiency during the recent drop?
Has another range formed following the plunge from $0.42?
From 23 September to 8 November, XRP traded within a range from $0.55 to $0.42. The past week’s selling saw XRP decline sharply beneath the range lows. It descended as far south as the $0.33 level. The $0.32-$0.33 region has been an important support zone since early September.
In the past few days, XRP witnessed a violent bounce between the $0.33 and $0.39 levels on the price charts. Yet, there did not seem to be a significant amount of buying volume. According to the On-Balance Volume (OBV), the selling pressure was so great in November that the OBV slipped beneath a support level from September. This suggested that sellers continued to remain dominant, despite the swift bounce from $0.33 to $0.39.
The market structure was also bearish on the daily timeframe, and a daily session close above $0.402 would be required to flip the bias to bullish. Yet, the entire zone from $0.396 to $0.42 was likely to offer stiff resistance to the buyers. From May all the way to mid-September, this region was one that bulls struggled to break.
Now that XRP was back beneath this zone, longer-term buyers might want to wait for a move back to support before buying. Alongside the market structure, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was also bearish, but it was in an attempt to break past the 45-50 region at press time.
Mean Coin Age sees a drop in October and November after some accumulation in September
The Mean Coin Age metric had been in advance since late August. This ascent lasted till 28 October. The inference was that, during this period, there was a trend of accumulation, as XRP tokens were not being moved. However, this changed in November.
The positive 90-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) also shifted to negative in November to signal that 90-day holders were underwater on average. The upside to this fact was that selling pressure might not be as intense as it was over the past week.
Any spikes in the dormant circulation can also be something to watch out for, as they tend to signal large selling pressure around the corner.